As Trump wavers, Europe is more optimistic about defending Ukraine

Soldiers from Norway join with troops from Finland, Britain, the U.S., Germany, and other NATO nations in a maritime training drill off the coast of Norway on March 13, 2025. NATO defense ministers are expected to focus on spending goals and aid to Ukraine at meetings in Brussels. (Davide Monteleone/The New York Times)

By Steven Erlanger

European nations are increasingly optimistic that they can support Ukraine financially and militarily against Russia even if President Donald Trump decides to wash his hands of the conflict, as he often threatens, and instead focuses on normalizing relations with Moscow.

But even with their best efforts, the Europeans cannot replace all of what the United States provides Ukraine — most important, real-time intelligence about Russian forces, incoming missiles and how and where to target the enemy. Ukraine’s ability to fight effectively relies largely on that U.S. intelligence.

“The Ukrainians don’t want this to be cut off no matter what,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general. U.S. intelligence is so sophisticated that it tells the Ukrainian military where Russian brigade headquarters are, where to target missiles and where to aim air defenses against incoming missiles, he said.

Despite Trump’s complaints about Ukraine, the United States has continued to provide intelligence to Kyiv, the capital, save for a pause for a few days after Trump took umbrage with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. It has also delivered weapons and equipment authorized by Congress during former President Joe Biden’s administration. But that authorization, about $61 billion, is expected to run out in the next few months, and there is no talk in Washington of another appropriation of funds.

NATO defense ministers are focusing on spending goals and aid to Ukraine at meetings Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels. Though Ukraine launched one of its most ambitious attacks yet in Russia over the weekend and attacked a key bridge Tuesday, the issue is increasingly urgent as Ukrainian officials sound alarms about weapons shortfalls and Russia ramps up another offensive.

European officials and analysts expect that Trump will not cut off intelligence to Kyiv or the Starlink satellite communications system or oppose European efforts to buy some key U.S. military equipment, like air defense missiles, and hand them over to Ukraine. Such purchases could help Ukraine maintain its capabilities in areas where U.S. weapons and systems outperform European versions.

Their expectations have been boosted by Trump’s overt frustration with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Putin has intensified the war, hit more civilian targets and begun a summer offensive, rather than agree to Trump’s desire for a ceasefire and an end to the bloodshed. Ukraine and Russia met Monday in Istanbul for peace talks that yielded little progress.

But the European members of NATO, which also represent the largest and most important members of the European Union, are largely united in their commitment to support Ukraine no matter what Washington decides to do.

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a gathering of scores of countries who support Kyiv militarily, met Wednesday at NATO under the leadership of Britain and Germany. The group was originally organized and chaired by the United States under Biden.

But in a sign of Washington’s disengagement, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth chose not to attend the gathering in Brussels or to participate online, even though he is scheduled to arrive in Brussels on Thursday for the meeting of the defense ministers. It was the first time a U.S. defense secretary has not attended the Ukraine group meeting in some form.

But European officials promised continuing aid to Ukraine. Ukraine’s supporters were providing “everything it needs and for as long as it needs,” said Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of Germany. “We will continue to expand this support, and we will maintain it for the long term.”

The Europeans regard a sovereign, independent Ukraine as a key element of their own security against a more aggressive, imperialist Russia, which demands a retreat of NATO forces to 1997 lines. That would create a larger gray zone of uncertainty and instability in Europe again, including all the countries of Central Europe.

NATO troops supporting national forces are stationed in the alliance countries that flank Russia, from the Baltics in the north to Bulgaria in the south, with eight forward-based multinational battalions and a ninth to come in Finland.

“The Europeans have made a basic strategic decision that Ukraine cannot be overrun, that they can’t let that happen,” said Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of War Studies, King’s College London.

Money is not the main issue, officials and analysts agree. Europe is providing more money to Ukraine than the United States and can afford to give more. It has committed at least 23 billion euros (about $26 billion) for this year, according to Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign and security chief. And there is more to be had from new defense loans and the leveraging or seizing of the 210 billion euros of frozen Russian assets held in Europe.

The war in Ukraine, which is now more than 3 years old, is also in some ways becoming cheaper to fight than when it began, as the two sides have moved to the use of sophisticated drones and artillery, rather than tanks and planes. The Europeans are now able to supply Ukraine with enough artillery shells, the analysts say, from their own increasing production and from purchases elsewhere. And European countries are investing more into the Ukrainian defense industry, which is proving “to be more efficient and adaptable than we are,” Freedman said.

The controversial mineral resources deal between the United States and Ukraine could also be used to offset direct U.S. arms sales to Ukraine. U.S. sales would be deducted from Ukraine’s share, which would allow Trump to insist that arms supplies are not a gift.

Just last week, Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany announced a $5.7 billion arms package for Ukraine, including investment in missile production there. Ukraine is increasingly producing its own drones, missiles, vehicles and artillery — fully 40% of its needs, Zelenskyy said Monday.

But the time between investment and product delivery worries the Ukrainians as the U.S. pipeline begins to dry up.

What is hard to obtain are large numbers of air defense missiles, like the U.S. Patriot. The Europeans have some Patriots, some of which they have donated to Ukraine, mostly from German stocks, and European companies produce their own lesser versions, like the SAMP/T. But unlike the Patriot, it cannot shoot down fast-moving ballistic missiles.

And there is no perfect replacement for the deep-strike capability and availability in volume of the HIMARS system, the U.S. mobile long-range missile, Grand said. The Europeans have airborne cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow and the Scalp, but in smaller numbers, and it is still not clear whether Germany will allow the export of its Taurus cruise missile.

Experts are optimistic that Ukraine will be able to hold off Russia’s summer offensive without significant losses. “The Russians always hope the next offensive will make a difference,” Freedman said. But even if the Russians gain ground, they lack enough experienced troops to hold it, he said.

“They still have no better idea than to throw people at the front lines,” he added.