Global shares decline, bond yields slide and dollar rallies amid inflation fears
World equities and U.S. bond yields fell on Monday as investors prepare for fresh inflation data and corporate earnings that may be seen as potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s path ahead for interest-rate increases.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index .STOXX lost 0.50% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS shed 1.17%.
The euro hovered just above parity versus the dollar as the biggest single pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany entered annual maintenance, with flows expected to stop for 10 days.
Euro zone bond yields fell while long-term inflation expectations dropped below 2% as recession fears deepened after warnings about the possible cut in Russian gas supplies.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield, the euro zone benchmark, fell 5 bps to 1.296%. It hit a five-week low at 1.072% last week. DE10YT=RR
Underlining the global nature of the inflation challenge, central banks in Canada and New Zealand are expected to tighten policy further this week. NZ/INTCA/INT
Wall Street, which was off to a strong start in July after a brutal first half of the year, further declined as traders fear another round of heavy sell-off if company results fail to meet expectations this month.
The dollar index =USD rose 0.869%, with the euro EUR= down 1.2% to $1.0061.
The market mood will be tested by earnings from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on Thursday, with Citigroup and Wells Fargo the day after.
“Not only are people worried that earnings are going to come in weak because of an economic slowdown, but also because of the rise of the U.S. dollar, which creates a headwind for earnings for multinationals,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 0.42%, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 1.04% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 2.02%.
Later in the week, a raft of U.S. economic data - including consumer prices, retail sales and factory output - should provide a glimpse of the extent to which inflation has peaked and the economy has cooled down as the Federal Reserve moves closer to next week’s policy meeting, which is expected to culminate in the second straight 75 basis points interest rate hike.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance in Charlotte, North Carolina, said his position remains cautiously optimistic,” but investors’ worry about a recession should not be ignored.
“We believe the headwinds to the economy and the market are substantial as inflation remains too high. ... However, we acknowledge that a lot of bad news has already been priced in, with the Nasdaq down and the S&P 500 continuing to decline from all-time highs,” Zaccarelli said.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS closed 2.07% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei .N225 rose 1.11%. Chinese blue chips .CSI300 lost 1.9% after Shanghai discovered a COVID-19 case involving a new subvariant, Omicron BA.5.2.1.