Hurricane season expected to be more active than normal

In an image provided by NASA, Hurricane Milton over the Gulf of Mexico in October 2024. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, saying it expected to see between 13 to 19 named storms this year. (NASA via The New York Times)

By The Star Staff

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday forecast a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season, with a 60% chance of above-average activity and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

“This forecast is a call to action: get ready,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in an official statement. “Take action now to have a plan and supplies in place before a storm threatens.”

The agency forecasts between 13 and 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, including between three and five major hurricanes, categories 3, 4 or 5, with winds of at least 111 mph.

“Six would be an incredible amount of major hurricanes,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, in a New York Times report noting that in recent years, only two May forecasts issued by Rosencrans’ group were incorrect. In 2017 and 2020 there were more hurricanes than initially forecast.

An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the Times report.

The forecast is based on factors such as warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures, low wind shear, and the possible intensification of the West African monsoon.

Among the improvements announced for this year is the expansion of the hurricane analysis and forecasting system, which will allow more accurate warnings up to 72 hours in advance. Information products in Spanish, a rip current risk map and a probabilistic portal for rain and flood risk forecasts will also be offered.

On the other hand, NOAA has undergone a series of layoffs and early retirements in recent months, as part of staff reductions mandated by the federal Department of Government Efficiency, leaving some to wonder what the implications might be for the data collection efforts that drive accurate, and timely, storm forecasting (see related story on page 5).

NOAA advised that its forecast is for the general activity of the season and not for specific impact sites. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30. The agency will update the forecast in August, before the usual peak of the season.