Latin America is facing a ‘decline of democracy’ under the pandemic
By Anatoly Kurmanaev
Postponed elections. Sidelined courts. A persecuted opposition.
As the coronavirus pandemic tears through Latin America and the Caribbean, killing more than 180,000 and destroying the livelihoods of tens of millions in the region, it is also undermining democratic norms that were already under strain.
Leaders ranging from the center-right to the far-left have used the crisis as justification to extend their time in office, weaken oversight of government actions and silence critics — actions that under different circumstances would be described as authoritarian and anti-democratic but are now being billed as lifesaving measures to curb the spread of the disease.
The gradual undermining of democratic rules during an economic crisis and a public health catastrophe could leave Latin America primed for slower growth and an increase in corruption and human rights abuses, experts warned. This is particularly true in places where political rights and accountability were already in steep decline.
“It’s not a matter of left or right; it’s a general decline of democracy across the region,” said Alessandra Pinna, a Latin America researcher at Freedom House, an independent Washington-based research organization that measures global political liberties.
There are now five Latin American and Caribbean nations with recent democratic histories — Venezuela, Nicaragua, Guyana, Bolivia and Haiti — where governments weren’t chosen in free and fair elections or have overstayed their time in office. That is the highest number since the late 1980s, when the Cold War receded and several countries in the grip of civil war or military dictatorships transitioned to peace and democracy.
Most of those leaders were already bending the rules of democracy to stay in power before the pandemic but seized on emergency conditions created by the spread of the virus to strengthen their position.
President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela has detained or conducted home raids against dozens of journalists, social activists and opposition leaders for questioning the government’s dubious coronavirus figures.
In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega released thousands of inmates because of the threat posed by the virus but kept political prisoners behind bars, while in Guyana, a lockdown thwarted protests against the government’s attempt to stay in power despite having lost an election.
In Bolivia, a caretaker government has used the pandemic to postpone elections, tap into emergency aid to bolster its electoral campaign and threaten to ban the main opposition candidate from running.
And in the island nation of St. Kitts and Nevis, the government imposed a strict lockdown on its 50,000 people during the campaign for general elections in June, hampering opposition efforts to meet voters while also keeping international election observers from traveling to the country.
It was the first time in recent history that a host country withdrew its invitation to the Organization of American States, a regional group that promotes democracy, to observe elections.
The loss of public trust in governments in Latin America is not new, but the erosion of democratic norms in the pandemic arrived at a time when the region’s economic growth and social progress were already unraveling, leaving many uncertain about the ability of democratic leaders to solve entrenched problems such as inequality, crime and corruption.
By 2018, only 1 in 4 people in Latin America said they were satisfied with democracy — the lowest number since Latinobarómetro, a regional polling company, began asking that question 25 years ago.
Discontent with the political establishment led to a wave of populist victories in recent years, including those of President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, who is on the far-right, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico, who is on the left. It also led to mass street protests in several Latin American countries last year.
The pandemic, hitting during this time of political upheaval, has plunged the region into the deepest recession in its history, exacerbating weaknesses in health and welfare systems and highlighting the ways in which many leaders are unable to meet public demands.
“All the things that Latin Americans have already been clamoring for — greater equality, better services — have been dramatically worsened by the pandemic,” said Cynthia Arnson, Latin America program director at the Wilson Center, a think tank in Washington. “The economic pain is dramatic, and it’s putting additional strain on the already weak institutions.”
It has also put a strain on the region’s struggling health care systems. Latin America has become a global hot spot for the virus, with Brazil, Mexico and Peru among the 10 nations with the highest numbers of deaths. And according to the United Nations, about 16 million people in Latin America are expected to fall into extreme poverty this year, reversing nearly all of the gains made by the region this century.
Adding to those challenges, democracy in Latin America has also lost a champion in the United States, which had played an important role in promoting democracy after the end of the Cold War by financing good governance programs and calling out authoritarian abuses.
Under President Donald Trump, the United States has mostly focused regional policy on opposing left-wing autocrats in Venezuela and Cuba and curbing immigration, making aid to Central American nations, among the region’s poorest, contingent on cooperating with the administration on immigration.
In the few democratic strongholds in Latin America, such as Uruguay and Costa Rica, leaders responded to the pandemic with efficiency and transparency, bolstering public trust in the government. In the Dominican Republic and Suriname, incumbent presidents recently bowed out of power after losing elections that were held despite the pandemic.
In many instances, judges and civil servants have resisted the attacks on democratic institutions during the pandemic, said Javier Corrales, a professor of Latin American studies at Amherst College in Massachusetts. “The defenders of liberal democracy in Latin America are not defeated,” Corrales said. “It’s not an open terrain for would-be authoritarians.”
Yet in most Latin American nations, the coronavirus accelerated an existing democratic decline by exposing the weakness and corruption of governments in the face of the catastrophe.
“When confronted with an existential threat, countries that did not already have deep democratic systems are choosing tactics that help leaders consolidate their power,” said John Polga-Hecimovich, a political scientist at the U.S. Naval Academy in Maryland.