Planning Board projects growth for 2023 & 2024

By THE STAR STAFF

The Puerto Rico Planning Board (JP by its Spanish initials) on Thursday announced a “base scenario” projection for growth in the economy of Puerto Rico of 0.8% and 1.8% for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, respectively, which represents an upward revision.

“After conducting an economic analysis, the Dynamic Econometric Model of the Puerto Rico Economy revealed the projection of growth in the Puerto Rican economy …” JP Chairman Julio Lassús Ruiz said.

The projections are published in the Economic Report to the Governor (IEG) for fiscal year (FY) 2022, which was released Wednesday. The report contains statistics that reveal the development and movement of Puerto Rico’s economic activity in the public and private sectors during FY 2022, in addition to economic projections for FYs 2023 and 2024.

Puerto Rico’s economy is impacted in various ways based on events that occur on a daily basis. Based on this, the PB prepared alternative scenarios for fiscal year 2023 of 1.2% in the optimistic scenario, and 0.4% in the pessimistic scenario. Also, for fiscal year 2024, Puerto Rico’s economy is expected to grow 2.4% in the optimistic scenario and 1.2% in the pessimistic scenario.

The projection’s assumptions are supported by: an increase in salaried jobs of 35,700 jobs, a level of 936,400 people employed for the cumulative fiscal period to April 2023, an unemployment rate of 6.0%, a projected growth in the Treasury Department’s collections of 3.8%, an increase in the consolidated budget of 9.85% compared to fiscal year 2023, and a significant reduction in inflation for fiscal year 2024 of 2.0%, according to information for April 2023 included in the Fiscal Plan for the Government of Puerto Rico.