Planning Board projects moderate economic growth for 2025 & 2026

As part of the analysis, the Planning Board established alternative scenarios. The optimistic scenario projects growth of 3.2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026. The pessimistic scenario estimates contractions of -1.0% and -0.4%, respectively.

By The Star Staff

Planning Board Chairman Héctor Morales Martínez on Monday projected moderate economic growth (“Real Gross Product”) of 1.1% for fiscal year (FY) 2025 and 0.5% for FY 2026 in Puerto Rico’s economy, reflecting an economic slowdown without entering negative territory.

As part of the analysis, the Planning Board established alternative scenarios. The optimistic scenario projects growth of 3.2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026. The pessimistic scenario estimates contractions of -1.0% and -0.4%, respectively.

Alejandro Díaz Marrero, director of the board’s Economic and Social Planning Program, noted that the projections will be updated as indicators such as the labor market, inflation, oil prices, and public and private investment change.

Miriam García Velázquez, director of the Social Analysis Subprogram, emphasized that the model used includes variables such as exports, personal consumption spending, oil prices, and U.S. economic policy, including the potential impact of measures taken under the Trump administration.

For FY 2024, the island economy grew 2.1%, reaching a gross domestic product of $69.869 billion, driven by solid consumption, increased exports, and a total domestic investment of $14.294 billion.