This time, it’s Republicans on the defensive on social issues
By Carl Hulse
Republicans have perfected the art of keeping the heat on Democrats on the searing social issues of the day, but this election year, it seems to be Republicans who are getting scorched.
During a midterm cycle that seemed tailor-made for significant Republican gains in the House and Senate, Democrats have managed to grab the advantage on abortion rights and same-sex marriage, steering the conversation away from topics that are thornier for them, such as inflation and crime.
They have had substantial help from Republican miscues, confounding Democrats who typically expect more craftiness from across the aisle.
“They can’t seem to get out of their own way,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., one of the Democratic incumbents on the ballot in November.
One reason for their struggles is that a large swath of the Republican base has fallen out of step with broader public opinion on these issues. Most Americans favor same-sex marriage rights and at least some abortion rights, but many Republican voters continue to oppose same-sex marriage and want strict abortion limits if not an outright ban. The disconnect makes navigating those topics treacherous for Republicans, who are faced with the choice of turning off their core supporters or alienating the independents whose support they need to prevail in November.
The trouble shows.
On Thursday, Democrats announced they would postpone until after the election a vote to protect same-sex marriages because its backers had failed to secure enough Republican support to overcome a GOP filibuster.
It was an intriguing decision by Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. and the majority leader, who is not usually inclined to pass up an opportunity to inflict political pain on the opposition. But he acquiesced to a request from bipartisan backers of the legislation for more time — and a less-charged environment.
Although it spared Republicans what was looking like a difficult moment, damage had already been done.
The threatened filibuster made it clear that some Republicans weren’t comfortable voting in favor of same-sex marriage before the midterm election, and others didn’t want to go on record against it at an inopportune time. Either way, Republicans looked shaky on an issue that most Americans consider to be long resolved.
The Republican posture in the Senate was sufficient to prompt hundreds of prominent Republicans, including Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Colorado, to sign a letter calling for passage of the same-sex marriage legislation to “reaffirm that marriage for gay and lesbian couples is settled law.”
On abortion, Republicans knew that the Supreme Court ruling striking down Roe v. Wade would complicate their push to reclaim Congress, and they sought to quickly rid themselves of the problem. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. and the minority leader, said a GOP-controlled Congress could pursue a nationwide abortion ban, but Republicans soft-pedaled that idea and instead chose to emphasize that the ruling returned the question of abortion rights to each state, where they said it belonged. Case closed.
Enter Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who surprised his colleagues Tuesday by rolling out his plan, backed by anti-abortion groups, to enact a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks, which would impose federal restrictions on blue and purple states that have not joined the post-Roe race to enact strict new limits on the procedure.
To cringes from many of his Republican colleagues, Graham declared that the coming election was essentially a referendum on abortion — and that if his party won control of Congress, it would, in fact, consider a ban.
Despite their determination to shift the issue away from the Capitol, Senate Republicans — and their midterm candidates — suddenly found themselves forced to answer whether they backed such a prohibition, potentially driving off suburban women who will be crucial to the election outcome. Again, some Republican lawmakers and candidates sought to distance themselves from the proposal.
Privately, many of Graham’s colleagues wanted to throttle him. Others were more diplomatic.
“I didn’t know anything about it,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. “I don’t know what his motivation was.”
Democrats could not believe their good fortune. On the day new inflation numbers were driving down the stock market, Graham had turned the conversation back to a topic that has so far proved advantageous for Democrats in the aftermath of the court ruling, which Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said had already shocked much of the nation.
“Republicans, having succeeded in putting in a conservative majority to overturn Roe v. Wade, are proposing to go even farther,” Coons said of the Graham legislation.
Republicans were also in danger of running afoul of public opinion on another volatile social issue — immigration — after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sent air charters of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, the island retreat in the blue state of Massachusetts. The stunt was aimed at highlighting the uneven impact of federal border policies and had many Republicans celebrating having steered the campaign conversation to the dysfunctional immigration system.
But it also risked spurring a backlash. Although polls show that most Republicans draw a hard line on immigration, they also find that the majority of Americans regard immigration as a positive and are particularly sympathetic to refugees, suggesting that the GOP stunt — which stranded vulnerable people in a place unprepared for their arrival — could also prompt outrage among voters who regard it as cruel.
Republicans concede they could do without the turmoil surrounding the abortion rights and same-sex marriage battles but contend that the focus on those issues is mainly a Washington preoccupation.
Cornyn joined the Republican chorus in saying that the economy, border security and rising crime would remain the decisive topics in the election, even as he conceded that Democrats had been successful in stoking voter enthusiasm on the social issues.
“Inflation is not going away. The Fed is going to raise interest rates more,” Cornyn said. “People are still going to be grumpy.”
Democrats, more accustomed to being on the losing end of the culture clash, say Republicans are misreading where the public stands on such issues and will pay a price for it.
“Republicans are just way out of the American mainstream,” said Blumenthal. “On a woman’s right to make a personal decision, individual women may make very different decisions. But the vast majority think they ought to be trusted to make those decisions — not some government official.”