European Championship tests gap between elites and underdogs

Spain produces more technically gifted players, like Alexia Putellas, than any nation but has few ruthless goal scorers. (X via @alexiaputellas)

By MICHAEL COX / THE ATHLETIC

Two years ago, before the first 32-team Women’s World Cup, there was widespread anticipation of one-sided matches. The 2019 World Cup featured 24 sides, and the United States recorded a 13-goal win over Thailand in the group stage. Surely, including eight weaker teams would prompt similar results?

Such fears were misplaced. Granted, the Netherlands beat Vietnam by 7-0, but the gap between the elite and the outsiders had narrowed.

Traditionally strong nations, including Germany, Italy and Brazil, crashed out at the group stage. Colombia, South Africa and Nigeria were impressive. Smaller nations, such as Haiti, New Zealand and Jamaica, were genuinely competitive. But what if there was another factor? What if the traditional elite are not as good as they should be?

This year’s European Championship, which began Wednesday in Switzerland, is the latest test.

Among the 16 teams that qualified for Euro 2025, there are a half dozen realistic contenders, distributed somewhat unevenly across the four groups — none in Group A, Spain in Group B, Germany and Sweden in Group C, and England, France and the Netherlands in Group D. All but the Netherlands, ranked 11th, are in FIFA’s top 10 positions in the global standings. Yet none of the six appears to have improved significantly over the past couple of years.

The world champion Spain is the favorite, but the team is not perfect. Spain produces more technically gifted players, like Alexia Putellas, than any nation but has few ruthless goal scorers.

Germany once dominated this competition, but it has undergone a major rebuild. It is without several veterans, including superstar striker Alexandra Popp. It lacks proven defenders.

Sweden won the first women’s European Championship in 1984, a reflection of the Nordic nations’ embracing the women’s game before the powerhouses of men’s European soccer. Their head start had long-lasting effects: For much of this century, Sweden had the best league in women’s European soccer. Now that the more populous European nations are taking the women’s game seriously, Sweden has slipped.

England won the European Championship at home three years ago, and the domestic game has progressed significantly, but its buildup to the tournament has been disrupted. The withdrawals of goalkeeper Mary Earps and defender Millie Bright, who both started every game of England’s runs to major finals in 2022 and 2023, have hinted at deeper problems with team spirit.

The Dutch look less fearsome these days, largely because Vivianne Miedema, once the most complete striker in Europe, has had three years of injuries.

Finally, France is eternally a mystery, continually producing good players but failing to click collectively. The French have never reached the final of a Euros — or a World Cup or Olympics. On paper, they have few weaknesses. On the field, they often underwhelm.

So what is going on? How did Europe take first, second and third place (Spain, England and Sweden) at the 2023 World Cup, and yet it feels like their best sides should be better? There are probably three major shifts happening.

First, in Europe, the outstanding version of the women’s game is now club soccer, rather than international soccer.

When the United States was the dominant force, the structure of the National Women’s Soccer League ensured balance and competitiveness; players were distributed relatively evenly across the league, and the national team remained the best side in the sport.

European soccer is very different, concentrating players at a handful of clubs. With more movement of players between countries, and more players being imported from outside Europe, top clubs now hoard players and perform at a higher level than international sides. As a consequence, going from the Champions League to the Euros often feels like a step down in quality.

The second factor is the tactical evolution of the women’s game. It is less individualistic and increasingly collective.

A decade ago, it felt enough for major nations to rely on a couple of stars who would dominate. But now teams defend better as a unit, and opponents need integrated movement to break them down. Teams press higher up the field, so opponents need practiced passing moves to bypass them.

These concepts can only be perfected on the training ground, but at the international level, coaches do not have much time with their squads. It is a clear advantage that Spain can count on almost an entire starting lineup that plays together for Barcelona in Liga F.

Finally, the rise of the underdogs cannot be separated from all this because it is clear that the world’s best players now hail from a wider range of nations.

In the 2014 voting for FIFA’s world player of the year award, the top 10 female players were from seven strong women’s soccer nations: the United States, Brazil, Japan, Germany, France, Spain and Sweden. For the equivalent vote a decade later, in December, the top 10 included Barbra Banda of Zambia, Tabitha Chawinga of Malawi and Khadija Shaw of Jamaica.

The game has improved immeasurably over the past decade. The lopsided draw will create major showdowns in the group stage and allow at least one outsider to make the semifinals.

Ultimately, one of the six favorites is likely to win the Euros, but their days of expecting huge victories are over.