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Writer's pictureThe San Juan Daily Star

Four more years of unpredictability? The world prepares for Trump’s return.



Damaged buildings in Siversk, Ukraine, Oct. 23, 2024. Donald Trump has said he would transform America’s relationship with allies and adversaries, pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and increase tariffs and deport millions. (Tyler Hicks/The New York Times)

By Damien Cave and Catherine Porter


With Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory Tuesday, the world is now preparing for another four years of unpredictability and “America First” protectionism that could reset the ground rules of the global economy, empower autocrats and erase the assurance of U.S. protection for democratic partners.


Despite a lack of substantive foreign policy debate in the campaign, Trump has made several statements that — if turned into policy — would transform America’s relationship with both allies and adversaries. He has pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, a promise many assume amounts to the withdrawal of U.S. aid for Ukraine, which would benefit Russia.


More broadly, he has made clear that he intends to make the world’s most powerful country more isolationist, more combative with tariffs, more openly hostile to immigrants, more demanding of its security partners, and less engaged on global challenges such as climate change.


Many believe the impacts could be greater than anything seen since the start of the Cold War.


“It accelerates the already deep trend of an America looking inward,” said James Curran, a professor of modern history at the University of Sydney. “Allies are going to have to save the multilateral furniture while it’s still around — they have to hope that America buys back in.”


Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani of Italy told Sky News he believed Trump had “a natural sympathy for Italy.” He said he was “convinced that we will work well with the tycoon’s new administration.”


In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Wednesday that there would be “good relations” with the United States, despite Trump’s recent threats to impose mammoth tariffs on her country. “There is no reason to worry,” she said. “Mexico always comes out ahead.”


In Kenya, Ndindi Nyoro, a lawmaker with President William Ruto’s governing coalition, said he thought Trump’s economic policies would be better for African countries, many of which are struggling with growing inflation and crushing debt.


“Republican policies have always been better for Africa & the Global South,” Nyoro wrote on Facebook.


India has also been watching the U.S. contest with interest and little concern, trusting that as the world’s most populous nation and fifth largest economy, it would still be courted as a counterweight to China.


Bracing for a return to transactional diplomacy


The extremes of what Trump campaigned on — from sky-high tariffs against foreign products, to mass deportations and stiff resistance to wars and alliances deemed too messy or costly — have already put many nations on edge.


China, with its own economy in the doldrums, faces the likelihood of much broader, and higher tariffs than those already applied during Trump’s first term and continued by President Joe Biden. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said a second Trump presidency would “inevitably diminish global trust and respect for the United States.”


Few of China’s neighbors, wary of Beijing, see cause for celebration in Trump’s victory.


South Korea and Japan expect to be pressured into paying more to have U.S. troops based in their countries. Trump has pledged to make South Korea pay $10 billion annually. South Korea currently pays a little over $1 billion.


Vietnam, which has seen its trade imbalance with the United States surge as manufacturers move from China to avoid tariffs, could face retaliatory tariffs like those Trump has threatened to impose on Mexico.


Fears of a less secure world


Some diplomats in Asia have said that with Trump in power, they also expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade the self-governing island it claims as its territory. In their view, China may calculate that Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip industry from the United States.


For Ukraine, Trump’s return means a fog of additional danger. His claim that he will be able to broker an end to the war immediately along with his warm relations with President Vladimir Putin of Russia have fueled worries that he would force the Ukrainians into a bad deal by cutting off U.S. military support.


In Russia, there were hints of glee over Trump’s victory, even as the Kremlin held off on offering immediate congratulations. One of Putin’s top lieutenants, Dmitry Medvedev, said Wednesday that Trump was preferable for his cold, corporate acumen.


Trump, Medvedev said, “dislikes spending money on various hangers-on,” referring to Ukraine’s president.


Anxiety and unease among democratic partners


President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine said last week that he “understands all the risks” of a Trump victory. But on Wednesday he wrote on the social platform X that he appreciated “President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs.”


But many of Ukraine’s supporters in the region are “woefully unprepared for a return of Trump,” said Georgina Wright, a European politics expert at the Montaigne Institute in Paris. Analysts and officials on the Continent expect a trade war, a bigger bill for NATO and military aid from Washington, a Trump-encouraged spread of anti-democratic populism, and a greater risk of Russia widening its territorial ambitions.


Trump has implied that he would not abide by the NATO article requiring collective defense, which kept Europe mostly peaceful and democratic for decades. At one point during his run for office, he said he would “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to countries that had not paid sufficient money to the alliance.


While publicly congratulating Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz huddled Wednesday morning to discuss European strategy toward a transactional president whose country not only is a strategic security ally, but remains Europe’s biggest trade partner. “We will work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context,” Macron said on X.


For some, a welcome change


And yet, in some countries, Trump’s testosterone-fueled approach has led to a measure of hope.


In the Middle East, the United States has largely been seen as ineffective — unable to end the cycle of conflict or even forge a solid cease-fire. Trump, to some, represents the potential for a new way forward, seen by many in the region as strongly pro-Israel but also as a dealmaker.


The far right in Israel was fist-pumping a Trump victory even before the last polls had closed, figuring that he could be persuaded to side with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in any attempt to end the wars in the Gaza Strip and against Iran’s proxies in the region. When Trump’s win looked inevitable early Wednesday, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultranationalist minister of national security in Israel, posted a festive “Yesssss” on social media.


Palestinians condemned U.S. support for the wars, expressing a mix of fear and dreams for what a new administration might bring. Hamas, in a statement, said, “Palestinians look forward to an immediate cessation of the aggression against our people.”


In Lebanon and among some of its Arab neighbors, a second Trump term seemed to be cautiously welcomed.


“He’s crazy, but at least he’s strong,” said Anthony Samrani, the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese daily L’Orient-Le Jour, summing up what he called the prevailing mindset toward Trump in the Middle East.


Among the most enthusiastic about Trump’s win was Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, who has suppressed dissent to create an ethnocentric, illiberal democracy in his country. He congratulated Trump on Wednesday for “his enormous win” that he called “a much needed victory for the world!”


Impact on immigration


The widest-ranging and perhaps most immediate impact of Trump’s victory on the world may involve immigration.


He has promised that among his first acts in office would be mass deportations for millions of immigrants in the United States illegally. Critics worry that within weeks, that could mean daily planeloads of returnees to not just Mexico, but also India, El Salvador and the Philippines.

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