Hurricane Fausto is moving toward Hawaii

By JUDSON JONES and AMY GRAFF

Fausto is a hurricane spinning in the open waters of the Eastern Pacific and may graze past Hawaii early this coming week.

On Saturday, satellite imagery showed a classic pinwheel cloud pattern spinning toward Hawaii with a visible eye.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said that Fausto had gone through a process indicating that it was strengthening, though it was about to enter a less hospitable, drier environment, so they believe it will weaken before reaching Hawaii.

Fausto’s exact path is still shaping up.

The storm was moving west at 14 mph Saturday, and on this trajectory and pace, Fausto could reach the Central Pacific Ocean by Sunday and pass by Hawaii on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Honolulu said the storm is likely to move near the Big Island on Tuesday and near Kauai on Wednesday, though a small shift in the storm’s track could change the island-by-island forecast.

Most forecast models show a near-miss north of the islands, and some show the storm’s path going even farther north. A more northern path would mean fewer effects on the islands.

But some forecast models do bring Fausto very close to the islands’ northern edge.

On Saturday, the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center — where meteorologists take in all the models and decide which is the most likely — leaned toward a path that would most likely bring some storm effects, including heavy rain and strong winds, to the islands.

Fausto’s impacts on Hawaii are still uncertain.

Forecasters have noted that the hurricane seemed slightly smaller than average for this part of the world. A smaller storm is less likely to directly affect Hawaii, which is already a very small target in the middle of the vast Pacific Ocean.

Either way, some tracks bring the storm close enough to cause heavy rain — especially along the eastern slopes of the mountains — as well as high swells and potentially tropical storm force winds.

The large swells are expected to start affecting Hawaii before the storm’s arrival, with dangerous surf and rip currents developing on Sunday on the east end of the state and spreading westward in the following days.

As Fausto approaches Hawaii, it is forecast to weaken in intensity, likely passing near the islands as a tropical storm.

Typically, storms moving from the east toward Hawaii weaken over cooler waters. Although ocean temperatures are warmer than average right now, which can often help hurricanes grow more intense, atmospheric conditions above those waters still suggest to forecasters that the system will weaken.

A more northerly path would cause the storm to weaken faster, creating at least some possibility that Fausto dissipates before reaching the islands.

Forecasters said that in the coming days, they would have a clearer picture of how much rain could fall on Hawaii and whether any areas would experience strong winds.