Lula and Bolsonaro head to runoff for Brazil’s presidency
By ANA IONOVA and ADAM B. ELLICK
Brazil’s heated presidential election was forced into a runoff on Sunday, according to election officials, with the right-wing challenger leading over the leftist incumbent in a narrow race that may have sweeping consequences far beyond the country.
The challenger, Flávio Bolsonaro, received 47% of the vote, compared with 45% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. With all of the ballots counted, neither succeeded in capturing the more than the 50% needed for outright victory.
The two candidates will now face each other head-on in an Oct. 25 runoff. But Bolsonaro, son of a former president imprisoned for attempting a coup after losing the last election, appeared to be closing in on his goal.
When the younger Bolsonaro addressed his supporters, he declared a victory was imminent in the next round of voting. “The word is change,” he said. “It’s the end of the era of the Workers’ Party,” referring to the party founded by Lula.
On the streets of major cities across Brazil, there were scenes of celebration and mourning Sunday night.
In São Paulo, Bolsonaro’s supporters chanted, honked horns and set off fireworks to celebrate his performance, while Rafaela Rogel, a 44-year-old therapist, broke down in tears.
“It’s going to be hard to win now because the votes are so entrenched,” she said at a gathering of Lula’s supporters.
Lula was quick to dismiss his defeat, vowing to double down in the runoff on his attempts to secure another term. “The second round is the ultimate test,” he said. “Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign.”
If Bolsonaro ousts Lula in the runoff, it will mark the biggest win yet for Latin America’s ascendant right. It will also usher in to power an enthusiastic Trump ally who has signaled that he is willing to help Washington advance its goal of dominance in the region.
Candidates aligned with President Donald Trump on issues like fighting drug gangs and “woke ideology” have won the last seven elections in the region, with Brazil the biggest remaining prize. Bolsonaro has vowed to forge closer trade ties with the United States.
If Lula succeeds in rebounding from Sunday’s setback, it may be seen as a rebuke to the Latin American right.
As many other Latin American leaders fall into line, Lula has repeatedly defied Trump, warning him not to meddle in his country’s affairs.
With the runoff just weeks away, Lula and Bolsonaro must now race to capture millions of more votes needed to claim an absolute majority. Key to that will be the roughly 8% of voters who backed a range of other candidates on Sunday. Those candidates, many of whom were on the right of the political spectrum, drew only single-digit support.
Analysts expect a majority of those voters to now shift their support to Bolsonaro, giving him the upper hand going into the runoff.
The first-round results offered “the clearest sign something has changed deeply in Brazilian society,” said Guilherme Casarões, professor of Brazilian studies at the Florida International University in Miami. “Even if Flávio couldn’t win the first round, he’s most likely to win in the second.” (Many Brazilians use his first name to distinguish him from his father, Jair Bolsonaro.)
For Lula to turn the race around, he will have to now win over another group of voters: the millions who stayed home or spoiled their ballots. About 20% of voters abstained from casting a ballot Sunday.
Lula versus Bolsonaro 2.0
The vote presented Brazilian voters with a familiar choice: Lula pitted against a Bolsonaro.
Lula has framed his candidacy as a vote for democracy and the only way to bar the return of the Bolsonaro family to power, four years after the elder Bolsonaro tried to cling to office after losing the last election.
The younger Bolsonaro has said that, if elected, he would seek amnesty for his father and supporters who were handed jail sentences for storming government buildings in January 2023, in an episode reminiscent of the attack on the U.S. Capitol. His father was sentenced to 27 years in prison.
Pledging revenge against the institutions that convicted his father, Bolsonaro has also vowed to impeach Supreme Court justices and overhaul the judiciary, which his movement accuses of censoring conservative voices.
At the same time, his links to a corruption scandal have dampened enthusiasm around his candidacy. Bolsonaro was placed under investigation after raising millions of dollars for a biopic about his father from a disgraced banker at the center of the scandal.
The path forward
The choice for Brazilian voters could hardly be starker.
Lula, 80, is a stalwart of leftist Brazilian politics seeking his fourth term in office. Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator, is running in the shadow of his father.
Lula is popular with women, Catholics and lower-income voters who credit him with reducing poverty and inequality. Bolsonaro enjoys fervent support among evangelicals and higher-income Brazilians.
On public security, which is a top concern among Brazilians, Bolsonaro has vowed hard-line policies similar to those of Latin America’s other right-wing leaders. He has promised to label drug gangs as terrorist groups and to build five maximum security prisons modeled on El Salvador’s.
Both candidates still face challenges in the runoff. Bolsonaro may have to win over moderate voters less enamored with his hard-line positions, while Lula will have to convince voters that he can best tackle domestic challenges that also include rising debt, eroding affordability and deteriorating faith in the judiciary.
Lula tried to do this before the election by promising a judicial overhaul, spending heavily on welfare and expanding a debt-relief program. He also banned online betting, which has accelerated Brazil’s debt crisis, and promised to push forward a proposal to cut back a six-day workweek.
An American hand
Trump’s shadow has loomed over the election.
Many expected that the American president might try to influence the vote in Brazil, as he has in other regional elections. While he did not endorse Bolsonaro, his administration did appear to lift him in more subtle ways.
The candidate’s association with Trump appealed to voters such as Carolina Varella Tim, who arrived to cast her vote in the southern city of Porto Alegre wearing a MAGA hat. “I vote against Lula, regardless of who the candidate is,” she said.
Yet, in a nation where pride in sovereignty runs deep, Lula’s promise to defend Brazil’s interests has also won over voters worried about meddling. “We are afraid Flávio will deliver Brazil to Trump,” said Camila Oliveira, a 35-year-old telemarketer voting in Mauá, a city outside of São Paulo.
