Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks.

Barclays raised its 2026 year-end ⁠S&P ⁠500 target on Tuesday, ⁠betting that strong corporate earnings led by the technology ​sector and resilient economic growth will outweigh rising macro risks, including war in ‌the Middle East, AI-driven disruption ‌and stress emerging in private credit markets.

The British brokerage lifted its ⁠index target ⁠to 7,650 from 7,400, implying about 16.2% upside from Monday’s close ​at 6,581.00.

Since the Iran war started, the S&P 500 has fallen about 4.3%, as soaring oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty pressured risk assets and prompted investors ​to pull back from equities towards safe-haven assets.

“We believe the U.S. continues ⁠to ⁠offer stronger nominal growth than ⁠other ​major economies and a secular growth engine in technology that shows few signs ​of stopping,” Barclays ⁠strategists said in a note.

“We are incrementally bullish on US equities, though the road likely stays bumpy until we turn a corner.”

Barclays lifted its S&P 500 earnings per share estimate for 2026 to $321 from $305, saying the forecast ⁠reflects a robust earnings base rather than a valuation re-rating.

Surging oil prices ⁠have revived inflation concerns and clouded the outlook for the U.S. Federal Reserve, which last week signaled only one rate cut for 2026.

The brokerage outlined a bear-case scenario of 5,900 for the index, warning that sustained higher oil prices could feed through to inflation and force the U.S. Federal Reserve into an “unenviable corner.”

It also flagged rising redemption pressure in private credit funds as a risk ⁠that could trigger a sharper downturn if sentiment deteriorates.

Barclays also updated its U.S. sector calls, upgrading industrials to “positive” from “neutral” and raising materials and energy to “neutral” from “negative,” citing improving industrial momentum, AI-linked capital expenditure ​support and benefits from higher energy prices.

The New York ⁠Stock ⁠Exchange, part of Intercontinental ⁠Exchange, announced a collaboration on Tuesday with digital ​asset company Securitize to help create tokenized versions of traditional ‌financial securities.

Securitize will serve ‌as the first digital transfer agent eligible to create ⁠blockchain-based ⁠securities for issuers of corporate and exchange-traded funds on ​an upcoming NYSE-affiliated Digital Trading Platform, the company said.

As part of the agreement, NYSE plans to work with Securitize as a ​design partner to develop a digital transfer agent program aimed ⁠at ⁠creating a system to ⁠help ​process tokenized securities trades on the blockchain.