Hedge funds turn nimble to deliver April gains, say sources.

Hedge funds pounced on the ⁠U.S./Iran ceasefire to post positive performances in April, with some ​reaping returns from bullish bets placed just before the April 8 ceasefire announcement, reports ‌from prime brokerages and industry ‌analysts show.

Stock pickers returned more than 9% in April, their best monthly performance ⁠since Goldman ⁠Sachs started keeping track in 2016, said the prime brokerage in ​a note to clients on Saturday.

The S&P 500 index rallied over 10% in April, the European STOXX 600 index gained almost 5%, while the dollar fell almost 2% against ​a basket of currencies.

Hedge funds benefited from the broad stocks rally and from ⁠individual ⁠trades that didn’t depend ⁠on this, ​the Goldman Sachs note said.

Tech-focused stock pickers returned a record result, nearly 19% in ​April, it added.

Hopes that a U.S.-Iran peace deal might be imminent propelled global ⁠stocks ⁠to new highs and sent oil prices tumbling on Wednesday, ⁠with the U.S. AI frenzy intensifying on strong earnings and reports of mega spending commitments in the sector.

In my column today, I ​look at the remarkable resilience of emerging markets to the global energy shock - EM stocks are at a record high, and bond spreads are the tightest in over a decade. If a peace deal in the ‌Middle East is reached, this may well continue. But ‌if not?

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. Iran says it is reviewing new US proposal ⁠after sources say sides ⁠closing in on deal

2. Oil supply shock to worsen as inventories fall further even if conflict ends

3. Stunning US ​profit strength ignites stocks’ charge to record peaks

4. Curbing release of Fed meeting transcripts may improve debate, Warsh says in book

5. US long bonds over 5% - buy or beware?: Mike Dolan

Today’s Key Market Moves

• STOCKS: New highs for benchmark MSCI world, emerging market, and Asia ex-Japan indices, South Korea, S&P 500, Nasdaq and others. Europe and Britain’s FTSE 100 both +2%.

• SECTORS/SHARES: Nine of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rise. Tech, communications services, ​industrials +2% or more. Energy -4%. AMD +19%, Super Micro Computer +25%. Dell +10%, Uber +9%, Nvidia +6%. Chevron -4%.

• FX: Dollar -0.5%, yen spikes to 155/$ for the first time since Iran war started. Big gains for ⁠ZAR and ⁠CLP, while KRW has its best day ⁠this year.

• BONDS: Yields lower across the ​board. UK yields -10 bps or more, U.S. yields -8 bps at short end to bull flatten the curve.

• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil slumps 8%, Brent briefly dips below $100. Gold +3%, silver +6%. ​Average U.S. gasoline price above $4.50/gallon.

Today’s Talking Points

* It’s vol ⁠over

The VIX volatility index, Wall Street’s so-called ‘fear index’, on Wednesday nudged to its lowest level in over three months. It is below where it was when the Iran war started in late February, and significantly down from its war peak.

It’s always a conundrum - does lower implied volatility lead to higher stock prices, or vice versa? It doesn’t really matter. The fact is Wall Street is surging to fresh high after fresh high, and investors see little sense in buying protection in the options market. Whether you agree with it or not, this market appears to have momentum.

* The $1 trillion club

Samsung joined the $1 trillion market ⁠cap club on Wednesday, its shares soaring 14% as part of a global AI chip surge that must be taking even tech bulls by ⁠surprise. Samsung becomes the second Asian company after TSMC with a trillion-dollar value.