Wall St ends lower as inflation worries push up yields.

Wall Street fell on Tuesday, slammed again by inflation worries that ⁠pushed ⁠long-dated bond yields to the highest since 2007, as investors ⁠dismissed conflicting signals on U.S.-Iran talks and looked ahead to Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.

In my column today, I also look ahead to ​Nvidia’s results. Another bumper report is expected, but it comes at a potentially critical juncture for the company and wider sector: if the AI juggernaut is to slow down, it could be for the oldest of ‌old-school reasons - rising interest rates.

If you have more time to ‌read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. Warsh’s arrival leaves long bonds without a safety net: Mike Dolan

2. World awaits new Fed ⁠Chair’s vision on independence

3. ⁠EXCLUSIVE-US not in hurry to extend China trade truce, Bessent says

4. UK finance ministry presses supermarkets to cap food ​prices, sources say

5. Nvidia shares set for $350 billion price swing after earnings, options show

Today’s Key Market Moves

• STOCKS: South Korea -3.3%, Europe up slightly, UK basically flat. S&P 500 and Dow -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.8%.

• SECTORS/SHARES: Five sectors on the S&P 500 fall, six rise. Comms services, consumer discretionaries, industrials, financials down 1% or more, materials -2%. Akamai Technologies -6% on bond offering, Cisco -3%.

• FX: Yen slips through 159/$, Tokyo cranks up warnings. India’s rupee hits new low for sixth ​day in a row

• BONDS: 30-year U.S. yield highest since 2007, flirts with 5.20%. U.S. futures now indicating more than 50% chance of rate hike this year.

• COMMODITIES/METALS: ⁠Oil down ~0.8% ⁠as Vance cites Iran progress, precious metals ⁠slide: gold -1%, silver and platinum -4%.

Today’s Talking Points

* ​Nvidia Day

The world’s most valuable company releases its latest earnings on Wednesday, and it is expected to be another blockbuster. But after years of near-monopoly in chips ​used to train AI systems, Nvidia is facing competition ⁠from tech giants building their own chips. The market is much larger, but also more contested.

And tens of billions of dollars in revenue is no guarantee shares immediately rise either. In February, shares tumbled 5.5% the day after earnings, the biggest drop in 10 months, even as revenue leaped 94%. A further 4% slide the next day wiped out $450 billion of market cap in 48 hours. And last November shares slid 3% the day after results, and 6% in the three days after the prior earnings report last August 27.

* Rock, meet hard place

Ugly UK jobs data Tuesday, ugly inflation data Wednesday? If ⁠so, the Bank of England is in an even more invidious position than it might have feared. Raise rates to cap prices, or support ⁠the creaking labor market? Other central banks will be watching closely - they could find themselves in the same boat soon.

Figures on Tuesday showed UK payrolls fell by 100,000 in April, the biggest drop since the start of the pandemic. CPI inflation data on Wednesday is expected to show a sharp rise in monthly rates but cooling annual gains. BoE officials will be praying there are no surprises. Not on the upside, anyway.