Why some MLB teams are willing to offer long-term deals to unproven top prospects.

The Milwaukee Brewers believe they will get more than their money’s worth out of shortstop Cooper Pratt. (Instagram via mlbtransactionsdaily)

By KEN ROSENTHAL / THE ATHLETIC

If pro baseball is broken, perhaps someone can explain how the team in MLB’s smallest television market is about to guarantee $50.75 million to a former sixth-round pick who has yet to play in the majors and last season had only a .691 on-base plus slugging percentage in Double-A.

Actually, the explanation is simple.

The Milwaukee Brewers believe they will get more than their money’s worth out of shortstop Cooper Pratt, with whom they completed an eight-year contract last Friday, which includes two club options.

Teams award extensions only to players they project will outperform the contracts, producing surplus value. Team owners crave cost certainty, especially near the end of a collective bargaining agreement. And the expiration of the current deal on Dec. 1 provides even more incentive for MLB franchises to lock up young talent.

Among many possibilities, the team owners might try to tempt the players into accepting a salary cap by offering free agency earlier than the current six-year mark. The Seattle Mariners, in the eight-year, $95 million deal they awarded infielder Colt Emerson last week, bought out a minimum of two free-agent years, and as many as three, if they exercise a club option. The additional control will be even more valuable if players in the next agreement can hit the open market sooner.

Even if the collective bargaining agreement remains unchanged, the Mariners will come out ahead if Emerson’s extension proves a bargain, as these deals often do. For every Scott Kingery or Evan White who underperforms his contract — those two players signed six-year, $24 million extensions with three club options in the late 2010s — there are numerous others whose below-market deals saved their teams many millions.

Thus, more extensions are likely in the coming days and months, particularly with so many rookies making significant impacts in the new season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been negotiating with shortstop Konnor Griffin, who is currently at Triple-A. St. Louis Cardinals shortstop J.J. Wetherholt, Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart, Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle and Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter are among the other logical candidates for long-term deals.

The Kansas City Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr., the Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez and the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll are among the other players from revenue-sharing recipients to agree to long-term extensions. And while Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal could land a record contract for a pitcher next offseason, no free-agent position player is likely to approach Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million deal on the open market any time soon.

For young players, the chance to secure life-changing money often outweighs the upside of going year to year in arbitration and hitting free agency at a younger age. Carroll, who in March 2023 signed an eight-year, $111 million extension with a club option, recalls advice he received from Evan Longoria, who 15 years earlier had signed an extension six days into his career.

Longoria told Carroll he could now “play free.”

“I don’t regret that decision for a day,” said Carroll, who had only 40 days of service when he agreed to his contract. “This is a hard game for young players, a lot of ups and downs. Just the stability that has provided for me has made those waters easier to navigate.”

Pratt’s agent, Scott Boras, generally prefers clients to establish their values in free agency. He rarely advises players to accept deals with multiple club options. But Pratt agreed to the fifth-largest contract in Brewers history, and more than twice what Kingery and White received in their predebut deals. Not too shabby, considering he has yet to prove he can hit even minor league pitching.

So what were the Brewers thinking?

Again, it’s simple. The Brewers, the three-time defending National League Central champions, are not about to match the spending of the division rival Chicago Cubs, who in the past three months have signed third baseman Alex Bregman, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and second baseman Nico Hoerner for a combined $431 million. The Brewers prefer to make smaller bets. The eight-year, $82 million contract they awarded outfielder Jackson Chourio before his debut was one. The Pratt deal is another.

Pratt, who turns 22 in August, has played only three games at Triple-A. Some club officials, however, compare his defense at shortstop to that of their former All-Star at the position, J.J. Hardy. Citing Pratt’s speed, athleticism and aptitude, they figure his offense will come. And even if Pratt proves only a defense-first type, his floor could be $50.75 million. In that sense, he is similar to Crow-Armstrong, an elite defender and developing hitter whose new Cubs deal is worth $115 million.

This isn’t the Brewers’ first commitment to Pratt. They signed him for $1.35 million, more than $1 million above slot, after making him the 182nd overall pick in 2023. The new contract demonstrates even greater faith in him, particularly at a time when another Brewers minor league shortstop, Jesús Made, 18, is one of the game’s top prospects. Made eventually could end up at second base, third or left field.

Seattle’s Emerson, drafted as the No. 22 pick in 2023, is guaranteed $95 million, only $4.4 million less than the new money the Mariners awarded catcher Cal Raleigh last March, when he was three years from free agency and not yet a 60-homer man. Again, hardly the sign of a sport that is broken.

The best part for the Mariners is that Emerson, according to MLB.com, will earn an average of $15 million per season in the final five years of the deal. If teams continue to sign free agents to shorter contracts with high average annual values — see Kyle Tucker for four years at $60 million per season and Bo Bichette at three years at $42 million per — Emerson’s contract might look better and better.

The Mariners and Brewers are open to cutting similar deals with other prospects, according to sources briefed on their strategies. Some of those players will resist, and perhaps they will regret their decisions if their careers go awry. Others will accept, willing to sacrifice tens of potential millions for long-term security. If the next labor agreement includes a salary floor as well as a cap, such extensions are likely to become even more common.

Clubs do not offer such deals haphazardly. In trying to buy low, they know exactly what they are doing.