Birling Capital’s Index notes economic weaknesses in first 10 months of González Colón’s tenure

Manufacturing activity surged past the expansion threshold this year, but that and other gains were overshadowed by setbacks in critical areas. (industrialespr.org)

By THE STAR STAFF

The first 10 months of Gov. Jenniffer González Colón’s administration have been marked by weak performance, according to the latest Government Progress Index (GPI) published by Birling Capital.

The index, which measures economic, social and operational progress through more than 20 official data sources, assigns Puerto Rico a score of 18.5 out of 50, placing the government in the category of “Minimal or Recessionary Performance.”

The GPI is designed to track whether the government is advancing, stagnating or deteriorating. It draws on indicators such as gross national product (GNP) growth, unemployment, crime statistics, energy reliability and manufacturing activity. Each variable is scored for progress or contraction, and the combined result determines the final rating.

From Jan. 2 to Nov. 2, the index fell sharply from its opening level of 26.5 points to 18.5, a decline of more than 30%. The score is also 36% below its peak of 29 points in April and nearly 14% lower than September’s reading of 21.5 points. Analysts say this trajectory underscores mounting structural challenges and a fragile economic outlook.

Despite the overall downturn, some sectors showed resilience. Manufacturing activity surged past the expansion threshold, with the Purchasing Managers Index climbing from 46.4 to 55.5, signaling renewed confidence among industrial firms. Cement sales also rose by nearly 14%, fueled by reconstruction projects and private-sector construction. Public safety registered modest gains, with Type 1 crimes declining by 3.6% year over year. Even the Economic Activity Index, while still in contraction, improved from -1.6% to -0.9%.

However, those gains were overshadowed by setbacks in critical areas. Energy reliability worsened, with Puerto Rico averaging 1,580 minutes of annual power interruptions – more than 11 times the U.S. average. Auto sales plunged by nearly 16%, reflecting weaker consumer demand and tighter credit conditions. Economic growth slowed dramatically, as GNP growth fell from 2.2% to 1.1%, marking the steepest contraction among all indicators. Unemployment ticked up to 5.6%, and electricity costs remained inflated by reconciliation clauses, including pension-related charges.

While homeownership, median income, and public debt levels remained stable, the island’s credit rating stayed at a low “D,” and market access improved only marginally. Those figures highlight persistent vulnerabilities in Puerto Rico’s economic foundation.

The broader context offers a mixed picture. Puerto Rico attracted more than $2 billion in new and expanded investments this year, aided by U.S. tariff policies that encourage reshoring. Analysts believe the island could double its industrial growth by 2030. Yet structural obstacles – such as an aging energy grid, population decline, stagnant GDP potential, and heavy reliance on federal funds – continue to weigh on long-term prospects.

Birling Capital concludes that the administration’s performance so far reflects a fragile recovery, with isolated strengths in manufacturing and construction unable to offset deterioration in energy reliability, consumer activity and economic growth. The report calls for urgent reforms in the energy sector, stimulus measures to boost productivity and income, and deeper integration into federal programs to reverse the recessionary trend.