From left: Ronna McDaniel, Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Harmeet Dhillon, a National Committeewoman of the Republican National Committee for California, and Michael Lindell, CEO of My Pillow, during the 2023 RNC Winter Meeting in Dana Point, Calif., on Jan. 27, 2023.
By MAGGIE HABERMAN, MICHAEL C. BENDER and REID J. EPSTEIN
Increased uncertainty is rippling through the Republican Party over how to beat Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential nomination, as an array of the party’s top figures move slowly toward challenging the politically wounded yet resilient former president.
Contenders have so far been unwilling to officially jump into the race, wary of becoming a sacrificial lamb on Trump’s altar of devastating nicknames and eternal fury. Some are waiting to see if prosecutors in Georgia or New York will do the heavy lifting for them and charge Trump with crimes related to his election meddling after the 2020 contest or hush-money payments to a porn star during the 2016 campaign. And the sitting governors weighing a 2024 campaign, including Ron DeSantis of Florida, are vying to score legislative victories they can use to introduce themselves to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The first entrant against Trump might be former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who served as United Nations ambassador under the former president and is set to announce her candidacy on Feb. 15, according to a person familiar with the plans. And this week, former Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland said for the first time that he was “actively and seriously considering” running.
But other potential challengers have more quietly wavered over when, where and how to unleash attacks on Trump’s candidacy, and to begin their own, after a midterm election in which his endorsements failed to usher in the red wave Republicans had expected. Republicans who hope to stop him worry that dithering by possible candidates could only strengthen Trump’s position — and could even lead to a field that is far smaller and weaker than many in the political world have anticipated.
“There’s a non-Trump lane right now that’s as wide as the Trump lane, and there’s no one in that lane,” Hogan said in an interview.
The lack of activity has included major Republican donors, a number of whom have moved away from Trump but, with few exceptions, are keeping their options open.
But a flood of candidates into the race could also help Trump. Some Republicans fear a repeat of the primary campaign in 2016, when a cluttered field allowed Trump to win with roughly 25% of support in several contests, a possibility that his advisers are hoping for if he faces a particularly strong challenge from any one person.
The case would-be challengers and their aides make behind the scenes is not that Trump’s policies were wrong, but that he would lose a rematch with President Joe Biden, who won in 2020 in large part by presenting himself as an antidote to Trump.
Among those who have expressed concern is Paul Ryan, the former Republican House speaker, who has called Trump a “proven loser.” In private conversations, Ryan has told people that donors and other Republicans need to find ways to ensure that there are not too many candidates splitting the vote against Trump. But what exact approach they might take is unclear, as is which would-be challengers would be receptive to it.
Trump has shown signs of both weakness and durability. His fundraising haul in the first weeks of his campaign was comparatively thin, and members of the Republican National Committee, long a bastion of pro-Trump sentiment, are not eager to back a third Trump campaign. A survey this week by The Bulwark, a conservative anti-Trump website, and Republican pollster Whit Ayres found that most likely GOP voters wanted someone other than Trump to be the party’s 2024 presidential nominee.
Yet other recent polls suggest that he remains the Republican front-runner. And the Bulwark survey also found that a staggering 28% of GOP voters would be willing to back Trump in an independent bid, a figure that would all but ensure another four years for Democrats in the White House.
“I think there are a lot of things that are still uncertain” about the 2024 primary race, said former Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, a former chair of the Republican National Committee.
Others considering a campaign include former Vice President Mike Pence, who has expressed disapproval of Trump’s efforts to use him to overturn the 2020 election while avoiding most criticism of his onetime ally. Pence has been building a campaign apparatus, including poaching a staff member from Haley, but he is not expected to make a final decision on running until later this year.
Another potential Trump rival, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has avoided going directly after his former boss. He has set his sights lower, using his recent book to attack Haley and John Bolton, a former national security adviser under Trump who is also considering a candidacy.
The person Trump is most acutely concerned about is DeSantis, whose advisers in Tallahassee are planning for the state’s coming legislative session with an eye on a potential presidential bid.
The Florida governor, who has a book set to be published this month, has been promoting policies that could translate into applause lines for the Republican primary base, including a proposed “anti-woke” overhaul of the state’s education system and a potential new law letting residents carry firearms without a permit. One change that DeSantis would almost certainly need from a friendly Republican supermajority in the Legislature: loosening a state law that requires state elected officials in Florida to resign before running for federal office.
Yet while DeSantis has attracted interest in early primary states, he has a small, insular team, which has concerned some donors and activists. And his lack of a presence in those states has led to questions among activists in places like Iowa and South Carolina about whether he risks squandering a chance to consolidate support if he waits past spring.
Sen. Tim Scott, one of the party’s most prominent Black politicians, is another South Carolinian considering a campaign. He has proved to be one of the most prodigious Republican fundraisers, collecting $51 million for his reelection campaign last year.
Scott also laid the groundwork for a national campaign by spending $21 million helping elect Republicans in the 2022 midterms. He endorsed 77 candidates last year and participated in 67 campaign events in 21 states, an adviser said.
This month, Scott will travel to Iowa, where he will speak at a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Polk County, and he is beginning a “Faith in America” listening tour, including speeches in his home state and Iowa.
Some prospective candidates have taken on Trump more directly. Former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, who lost her primary for reelection after helping lead the House committee investigating the former president’s role in the Capitol riot, is said to be considering a campaign, as well as possibly writing a book. Former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey has been one of the most vocal Republicans in calling for the party to find a new leader.
And Hogan has spent the two weeks since he left office speaking with political advisers and donors about running for president. In an interview Wednesday, he cast the field as one Trump-aligned figure after another aiming to lead a party he said must move beyond the former president in order to win the general election.
“Maybe a crowded field is good, with Trump and DeSantis fighting with each other and with six or eight other Trump people,” Hogan said. “It might create more of an opportunity for somebody like me.”