Ecuador votes no to hosting US military base

By GENEVIEVE GLATSKY and JOSÉ MARÍA LEÓN CABRERA

President Daniel Noboa of Ecuador has spent months courting Washington. He has met with President Donald Trump at his Florida estate; formed an alliance with Blackwater founder Erik Prince, a Trump supporter; and pressed to allow U.S. military bases in Ecuador.

But voters at home delivered Noboa a sharp rebuke.

They soundly rejected a national referendum Sunday that he had backed, aimed at authorizing a foreign military presence in Ecuador. With more than 98% of ballots counted, 61% opposed the measure.

The vote comes as the region has been roiled by the intensifying U.S. military campaign against boats the Trump administration claims are smuggling drugs.

The U.S. military has launched 21 strikes that have killed at least 83 people, though U.S. officials have yet to provide evidence that the boats were ferrying drugs. Many legal experts say the attacks violate international law.

Still, analysts said the rejection of the referendum in Ecuador reflected not necessarily unhappiness with the U.S. military campaign but rather widespread distrust and dissatisfaction with Noboa himself.

Once seen as an oasis of peace in South America, Ecuador has had an explosion in drug violence in recent years, which Noboa campaigned on tackling. But after his two years in office, homicides are rising, and many prisons are effectively controlled by gangs. Some analysts predict that this year could become the most violent in Ecuador’s history.

Various crises have heightened a sense that the government is incapable of containing violence and providing basic services. The problems include clashes set off by cuts to government fuel subsidies, which left three civilians dead; a series of urban explosions; three prison massacres; and a worsening medicine shortage.

“He didn’t lose because of Trump; he lost for promising transformation without administrative credibility,” said Pamela León, an analyst based in Guayaquil. “The decisive message was domestic.”

Noboa, who has not said anything publicly about the U.S. airstrikes, had argued that a U.S. military presence in the country would help his government fight criminal organizations.

Under Rafael Correa, who was president from 2007 to 2017, Ecuador’s relations with the United States deteriorated, and he expelled U.S. military forces. Analysts say the expulsion undermined border security and allowed transnational drug traffickers to expand their operations.

Ecuador’s Constitution prohibits foreign military bases and requires a referendum to change this.

In September, Noboa hosted the U.S. secretary of state, Marco Rubio, who pledged to provide $20 million in security aid, including for drones. This month, Noboa and Kristi Noem, the U.S. homeland security secretary, toured sites for potential U.S. military bases.

Just days before the vote, he signed an agreement with the United States to reduce tariffs on U.S. imports in exchange for the U.S. removing levies on some Ecuadorian exports.

Ecuadorians generally value good relations with the United States, but many voters seemed to believe that the referendum lacked clear plans for improving security, said Caroline Ávila Nieto, an Ecuadorian political analyst.