By Reid J. Epstein, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in an even tighter race in the battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin than just seven weeks ago, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College.
Harris’ advantage from early August has been chiseled away slightly by Trump’s enduring strength on economic issues, the polls found, a potentially troubling development for the vice president given that the economy remains the most important issue driving voters.
With less than 40 days until Election Day, the race is essentially tied in Michigan, with Harris receiving 48% support among likely voters and Trump garnering 47% — well within the poll’s margin of error. In Wisconsin, a state where polls have a history of overstating support for Democrats, Harris holds 49% to Trump’s 47%.
The polls also found that Harris had a lead of 9 percentage points over Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, whose lone electoral vote could be decisive in the Electoral College. In one possible scenario, the district could give Harris exactly the 270 electoral votes she would need to win the election if she carried Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Trump captured the Sun Belt battlegrounds, where Times/Siena polls show he is ahead.
The Times and Siena College also tested the presidential race in Ohio, which is not considered a battleground for the White House but has one of the country’s most competitive Senate races. Trump leads by 6 points in Ohio, while Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is ahead of his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, by 4 points.
Wisconsin, which has for months appeared to be a bright spot for Democrats on the presidential battleground map, has been decided by less than 1 point in four of the last six campaigns, including 2020. Biden won Michigan by 3 points that year after Trump carried it by 0.3 points in 2016.
Trump remains broadly disliked, but interviews with those polled show that Harris faces a challenge in winning over voters who cannot bring themselves to support the former president.
“I’m not a happy camper,” said Matt Henderson, 65, a maintenance man for the local electric company in Westland, Michigan. He said he was likely to vote for Harris not because he was politically drawn to her but to prevent Trump from returning to power.
“Jan. 6, 2021, proved he is a traitor,” Henderson said. “He doesn’t care about anything but himself. He tried to steal an election.”
The polls found that 80% of Black voters across Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio were planning to vote for Harris, and 13% for Trump. An additional 7% of Black voters said they did not know how they would vote. While Harris has a huge edge among Black voters, the 80% figure is less than Biden won nationally four years ago.
Antonio Dawkins, 40, a regional sales manager from Waukesha, Wisconsin, a suburb of Milwaukee, said he planned to vote but would leave the presidential line blank. He dislikes Trump but is also dissatisfied with Harris.
“She’s kind of taking the car salesman pitch and trying to sell everybody that she’s not Trump, and that’s not enough,” said Dawkins, who is Black. “She says a lot of things that sound good with no details. So I guess they call that — there’s no meat and potatoes.”
The polling results fit a recurring theme with voters in battleground states: Many tend to believe that Trump’s time in office helped people like them, and they worry that Harris’ policies would hurt people like them.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, voters were about equally likely to say Harris’ policies would help as they are to say her policies would hurt: 41% versus 40%. But 46% of voters in the two states said Trump’s policies would help people like them.
Yet when voters in Michigan and Wisconsin were presented with a direct head-to-head question about which candidate they trusted more to “help people like you,” Harris had a slight edge, suggesting that voters drew a subtle distinction between the candidates and their policies.
Voters in the states were also tied on which candidate they trust more to help the working class.
After the economy, abortion was the second most important issue to voters in Michigan and Wisconsin, with 18% saying it was central to their choice. That is an increase from May, when 13% of voters in the two states said abortion was their top issue.
On abortion, voters in Michigan preferred Harris to Trump by 20 points and in Wisconsin by 13 points. In Wisconsin, though, that is down from a 22-point advantage in August. In Michigan, Harris’ numbers on abortion are largely unchanged.
Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities relate to his comportment. In Wisconsin, 55% of undecided and persuadable voters cited his behavior, his honesty and his ability to serve as president as their among their chief concerns. In Michigan, the number was lower, at 47%.
“He’s divisive, he’s violent, he’s vile,” said Lesley McKenzie, 64, an executive assistant from Southfield, Michigan. “He’s unbecoming to even sit or even to pass by the White House. I mean, it’s totally crazy.” She added: “He is like rolling in a pigsty. Every day he comes up with crazy things. I don’t think he’s all there. And if he is, oh my God.”
The crucial group of voters who could decide the election — undecided and persuadable Americans — has shrunk slightly since August as they begin to solidify their decisions.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, these voters leaned slightly toward Harris, though they have reservations about both candidates. Roughly a third said their primary concern about Trump is his personality, while 12% worried about whether he could actually do the job and 8% were apprehensive about his honesty and truthfulness.
Fewer undecided and persuadable voters had concerns about Harris’ personality and temperament. Just 10% in Michigan and Wisconsin said her personality or judgment were their main concern, while 19% worried about her honesty and truthfulness.
Nathan Booth, 27, a surgical resident from the Detroit suburbs, called Trump’s debate performance this month “embarrassing.” Booth said he voted for Trump in 2016 and then for Biden in 2020 because of the Republican president’s behavior.
Despite those feelings, Booth said he was inclined to vote for Trump again this year because of his dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy.
“In the last three years, my purchasing power has gone down,” he said. “I have less money than I did before, and I imagine that the majority of the country making under $100,000 is feeling the same way.”
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