By Jim Tankersley
The conservative Christian Democrats appeared poised to win Germany’s parliamentary elections Sunday, with the hard-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, in second place.
The first wave of exit polls, which are historically highly accurate predictors of Germany’s final vote, showed German voters delivering a rebuke to the nation’s left-leaning government over its handling of the economy and immigration.
The Christian Democrats and their sister party, the Christian Social Union, were leading with a combined 29% of the vote. The AfD had 19.5%, lower than what was predicted, while the governing Social Democrats had 16%, the early exit polls indicated.
That almost certainly means the country’s next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz, a businessperson who has promised to crack down on migrants and slash taxes and business regulations in a bid to kick-start economic growth.
“We have won it,” Merz told supporters in Berlin after the exit polls were released.
But if those exit polls are correct, Merz will likely not have the option of forming a simple coalition with the second-place finisher. Like other German party leaders he has promised never to partner with the AfD, parts of which are classified as extremist by German intelligence.
The snap election was held earlier than expected, after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition splintered last fall. The relatively brief campaign was dominated by two issues: the economy and immigration.
Scholz conceded defeat shortly after the exit polls were released Sunday.
“It is bitter,” he told a crowd of hundreds gathered at his party’s headquarters, congratulating Merz as he vowed that his party would stick together in the days ahead.
The Trump administration became a late-arriving issue in the campaign, with candidates warning that the United States is no longer a reliable ally. How Germans voted will now be a critical component of Europe’s response to President Donald Trump’s new world order, and resonate far beyond their borders.
On Sunday, Merz promised swift talks to form a coalition and restore strong German leadership in Europe. “The outside world is not waiting for us,” he told supporters. “And it is also not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations.”
Here’s what we are following:
— Immigration policy: A series of deadly attacks over the past year committed by immigrants, including asylum-seekers from the Middle East and Afghanistan, have rattled Germans. The AfD has gained support by promising to deport some immigrants and seal borders, which won the endorsement of Trump adviser Elon Musk and a form of encouragement from Vice President JD Vance. The U.S. meddling in the campaign put off some left-leaning voters Sunday but was welcomed by others supporting the AfD, according to interviews at polling stations.
— Economic crisis: Germany’s economy has not grown in five years and is suffering from an industrial competitiveness crisis. Forecasts show an economy rapidly sliding backward, stunning declines that have emerged as one of the biggest issues in the parliamentary election.
— Elevating the AfD: The AfD, with its anti-immigrant and nationalist platform, has long been a pariah of German politics. A new band of influencers unafraid of confrontation helped push the party to second place in preelection polls.
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