Most voters think America’s divisions cannot be overcome, poll says

Half of the voters say President Donald Trump is a unique threat to the American system of government, according to a poll by The New York Times and Siena University. (Pete Marovich/The New York Times)

By JEREMY W. PETERS and RUTH IGIELNIK

Americans have markedly less faith in the ability of the country’s political system to solve problems than they had five years ago, with a large majority now believing that the country is incapable of overcoming its deep divisions, according to a poll by The New York Times and Siena University.

Even in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, when the country was fighting over mask mandates and forced to reckon with questions about racial inequality, a majority of voters still agreed that the country was capable of solving its political problems.

Today, just 33% of voters feel the same.

The steep rise in pessimism reflects a striking shift in the public’s perceptions about what ails the country. After the economy, the poll found that Americans were most likely to point to problems in the political culture as the most urgent. They named polarization and the state of democracy more often than immigration, inflation or crime.

The Times/Siena poll of 1,313 registered voters, taken between Sept. 22-27, was conducted at an especially fraught moment, roughly two weeks after the assassination of right-wing activist Charlie Kirk. And it was taken before the government shutdown that began at midnight Wednesday — a development likely to reinforce the negative feelings that American voters have about the division and dysfunction in politics.

“It is impossible now to have a policy discussion,” said Amber Yang, 37, of Boston, who works in finance and identifies as a Democrat. She said the polarization has seeped into most aspects of life, complicating running a business and even raising a family.

“There’s no consensus on the facts,” she added. “And when you can’t have a conversation, how do you even move forward?”

Even though the national mood is bleak, Americans still possess some sense of hope and goodwill toward the other side, the poll found.

Only a small fraction of voters, for instance, seemed comfortable demonizing opponents.

When Democrats were asked whether they think of Republicans as “the enemy” or as “fellow Americans” whom they disagree with politically, only 10% chose the harsher description, a modest decline from last year. And 14% of Republicans said they think of Democrats as “the enemy,” a slight increase.

When it comes to free speech, 60% said that they felt comfortable expressing their views, though vastly more Republicans felt freer than Democrats.

There was widespread agreement on another freedom of speech issue. Nearly all Democrats and independents — and 57% of Republicans — said they opposed revoking the licenses of television stations that air programs that criticize President Donald Trump.

Overall, however, the poll captured an electorate at a moment when it was struggling with deep doubts about the vitality of American democracy.

A majority of Americans — 55% — said they would describe the United States as “a democratic country.” But a sizable portion, 41%, disagreed, including 5% of Democrats and 40% of independents.

The poll also revealed how deeply entrenched partisanship has become. Half of the voters say Trump is a unique threat to the American system of government. The other half thinks Trump is presiding over an improved or stable economy and has done an excellent job of keeping his campaign promises.

“Unfortunately, it feels like you have to pick a side,” said Al Heymann, 49, of Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, who supports Trump. He acknowledged that the president was reckless with his words, often with inflammatory results.

But Heymann was quick to add that Democrats and some in the news media share blame for the polarization, as they seem to blame Trump anytime something goes wrong.

“Stuff has gotten out of hand,” he added. “It’s just pulling sides apart when we really need to come together to make things happen. But neither side wants to do that.”

Before the 2024 election, polls showed that people were more likely to identify issues such as inflation, abortion and immigration as most important to their vote.

Polarization barely registered.

Today, spasms of political violence have erupted across the country with alarming frequency, including the killings of Kirk and of a Minnesota state senator and her husband in June. Asked who is to blame for the discord, respondents agreed: the other side.

Asked to name the biggest problems, Democrats said Trump and the Republican Party first, ahead of the economy.

“I feel like I’m living in an episode of ‘The Twilight Zone,’” said Lea Smith, 50, a Democrat living in New York, who believes the Trump administration’s policies have been unfair to women, Black people and LGBTQ+ community members.

When Republicans were asked to identify the biggest problem, the economy was first, followed by Democrats.

The government shutdown could offer a point of agreement. Asked which party should be blamed for the shutdown, 19% said Democrats in Congress; 26% said Trump and the Republicans in Congress.

One-third of voters, however, said they would blame both parties equally.

Here are the key things to know about this poll from The New York Times and Siena University:

— The survey was conducted among 1,313 registered voters nationwide from Sept. 22-27.

— This poll was conducted in English and Spanish, by telephone using live interviewers and by text message. Overall, 99% of respondents were contacted on their cellphone.

— Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing pollsters to make sure they reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 152,000 calls or texts to more than 56,000 voters.

— To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, pollsters give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree.

— The margin of sampling error among the electorate that is likely to vote in November is about plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error.