By The Star Staff
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season, which could be one of the most intense on record. With the peak of hurricane season quickly approaching, NOAA’s National Weather Service urges everyone to know their risks, prepare for threats such as damaging winds, storm surge and heavy rainfall, and have a plan in place in case of evacuation.
In their midseason update, NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters adjusted the number of named storms expected to between 17 and 24, of which between eight and 13 could become hurricanes, including between four and seven major hurricanes. The updated outlook is similar to the one issued in May and includes the named storms to date.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
“Hurricane season started early and violently with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a written statement. “NOAA’s updated hurricane season outlook is an important reminder that the peak of the season is near, when the most significant impacts historically occur.”
In the Atlantic basin, a typical season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90 percent chance of this outcome.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has already had significant impacts:
•Tropical Storm Alberto formed on June 17 and dumped nearly a foot of rain on parts of Texas and New Mexico, triggering flash flood emergencies.
•On July 1, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic basin, causing catastrophic damage and approximately 20 deaths across several Caribbean islands, as well as an estimated 25 preliminary deaths in Texas, Louisiana, and Vermont.
“Beryl broke multiple records in the Atlantic basin, and we continue to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Factors that could influence this year’s forecast include warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, lower vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds and a strengthened West African monsoon. In addition, dry air from the Sahara, which prevented storm development for part of the summer, is expected to subside in August.
One ongoing climate driver is the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which has supported more active hurricane seasons since 1995. Another factor this year is the potential for La Niña to develop, which could further weaken wind shear over the Atlantic basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify.
Comentários