PR’s most vulnerable towns face deepening socioeconomic challenges, study shows
- The San Juan Daily Star
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
By THE STAR STAFF
The Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics has released the results of its latest Municipal Lag Index, a comprehensive study that evaluates the social and economic conditions across the island’s municipalities. The findings reveal stark disparities, with several towns facing significant challenges related to poverty, aging populations and educational attainment.
According to the report released late last week, municipalities such as Maricao, Hormigueros, Guánica, San Germán, Maunabo, Lajas, Rincón, San Sebastián, Vieques, Las Marías, and Utuado ranked lowest on the overall index. Those towns share common issues including population aging, increased age dependency, and in some cases, rising poverty levels. Vieques stood out as the most critical case, showing simultaneous deterioration in poverty, education and demographic indicators. Meanwhile, towns such as Maricao and Lajas demonstrated that improvements in education and employment have not been sufficient to counteract unfavorable demographic trends.
The Municipal Lag Index is composed of five key variables grouped into two dimensions: Economic Mobility and Demographics. The variables include the percentage of people living below the poverty line, unemployment rate, percentage of high school graduates (among those aged 18 and older), age dependency ratio, and median age. The index aims to measure poverty beyond income thresholds by incorporating elements of social lag and relative deprivation.
The index was calculated for two comparative periods: 2014–2018 and 2019–2023, allowing for an analysis of changes over time. Scores range from 0 to 1, with higher scores indicating greater relative lag. Encouragingly, 42 municipalities showed a decrease in their scores, suggesting improved conditions. Of those, 22 saw reductions greater than 5%.
However, the study also identified clusters of municipalities with higher lag scores -- primarily in Puerto Rico’s central, southern, southwestern and southeastern regions. In contrast, several towns in and around the San Juan metropolitan area, including Culebra, Toa Alta, Gurabo, Juncos, Dorado, Trujillo Alto, Santa Isabel, Canóvanas, Toa Baja, and Las Piedras, demonstrated notable improvements in their relative index scores during the 2019–2023 period.
Dr. Ronald Hernández, project manager for statistical projects at the institute, emphasized that the index is a relative measure, not an absolute one.
“The value of the index is not in pointing out which municipality is better or worse, but in providing an objective foundation for analysis, planning, and decision-making,” Hernández said. “It’s an opportunity for mayors and policymakers to understand their communities’ social and economic realities and develop targeted strategies.”
To create the index, the institute employed rigorous statistical methods, including exploratory factor analysis, normalization, and variable aggregation. Data sources included five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The study underscores the urgent need for integrated public policies that address both economic challenges and demographic shifts.
“While the improvements in several municipalities are encouraging,” Hernández noted, “it is essential to align socioeconomic development efforts with strategies that respond to Puerto Rico’s ongoing demographic transition. This includes enhancing geriatric healthcare services, implementing care policies, retaining young populations, and adapting urban planning to aging communities.”
The Municipal Lag Index is intended to foster evidence-based dialogue among stakeholders and serve as a strategic tool for municipal and central government planning, investment decisions and policy development.