‘See you in 4 years’: Trump drives Canadians away from Western New York

By MARK SOMMER

It’s been a strange fall in two of New York state’s westernmost counties, Niagara and Erie, on the Canadian border.

Far fewer Canadians are crossing into New York to enjoy the changing foliage and the region’s plentiful vineyards and orchards.

This is not entirely unexpected: Canadians have been scarce at cultural attractions, sporting events and shopping malls in the area since President Donald Trump threatened Canada with tariffs two weeks into his second administration (following through on those threats March 4) and spoke of adding the country as the 51st state.

But that absence has been deeply felt, said Anthony Sprague, general manager of the Buffalo Bisons baseball club, the top minor-league affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays, who are facing off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. Canadians typically comprise a quarter of the club’s fan base at its downtown Buffalo, New York, stadium, he said. This season, that share has shrunk to 10%.

The team began receiving season ticket cancellations even before the baseball season got underway in March, Sprague said. “The narrative was all the same: ‘Nothing against you guys, we love you guys, but we need to take a stand by not coming across the border.’”

Tensions aren’t likely to dissipate anytime soon after Trump declared an immediate end to trade negotiations Thursday. His decision followed an angry post on Truth Social over an ad sponsored by the province of Ontario featuring President Ronald Reagan denouncing the use of tariffs.

“We stand ready to pick up on those discussions when the Americans are ready,” Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada said in response. On Friday, the premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, said the ad would be withdrawn next week so that trade talks could resume.

Residents of both nations have been driving back and forth and visiting since the Peace Bridge connecting Buffalo and Fort Erie, Ontario, opened in 1927. Many people own homes on both sides of the border.

Patrick Kaler, president of Visit Buffalo Niagara, Erie County’s tourism and convention bureau, worries about how long Canadians’ disenchantment with the United States will continue and what the long-term consequences might be. Canadians typically generate 35% to 40% of the region’s annual tourism revenue, according to the bureau.

“The friendly, congenial nature we have had for years, I’m afraid, is going to be destroyed the longer this carries on,” Kaler said. “We’ve heard people say, ‘We’ll see you in four years,’ but that’s a long time from now.”

The Buffalo AKG Art Museum, formerly known as the Albright-Knox Art Gallery, had high hopes of a robust Canadian turnout when it planned its current exhibition, “Northern Lights,” featuring major Nordic and Canadian landscape paintings. The museum, which displays modern and contemporary art and completed a $195 million expansion in 2023, is just 6 miles from the border.

But the throngs of Canadians anticipated when the show opened in August haven’t materialized. Monthly visits by Canadians to the museum over the past two years (tracked using address information from online and in-person ticket sales) hovered between 7% and 10%, a museum spokesperson said. This past February, after Trump took office, that figure plummeted to under 3%, where it has remained, said Janne Sirén, the museum’s director.

The prolonged drop-off is deeply worrisome, Sirén said. “The economic and cultural life of Buffalo is inextricably intertwined with Canada, and the same is true of the Buffalo AKG.”

Frank Lloyd Wright’s Martin House, also in Buffalo, has seen a similar decline in attendance by Canadians since February, according to Jessie Fisher, the CEO of the nonprofit that manages the house.

Several Canadian school group tours have canceled their reservations for this year and 2026, citing the fear some Canadians have of being detained by U.S. agents at the border amid the Trump’s administration’s immigration crackdown, Fisher said.

She said the president’s posture toward Canada had created anger and alienation that, as a longtime Buffalo resident, she regretted as much as the lost revenue.

“When you grow up here, you know all the words to the Canadian national anthem, and when you grow up in southern Ontario, you are a Bills fan,” Fisher said, referring to Buffalo’s NFL team. “We miss our neighbors.”

Bridge crossings into the United States from Canada tell part of the story. In September, the number of vehicles crossing the Peace, Lewiston-Queenston, Rainbow and Whirlpool bridges was down nearly 14% compared with a year earlier, according to the Buffalo and Fort Erie Public Bridge Authority. (That was an improvement from May, when crossings were down 21% year over year.)

The most recent study of Canadians by Longwoods International, a market research firm working with the tourism industry, found that 63% of active travelers said they were less likely to come to the United States, with most citing tariffs and political statements by U.S. leaders.

A slim majority of respondents said they no longer perceived the United States as “a place I would feel welcome” or “a safe place to visit.” They also disagreed that “international travelers are valued there” and that the country is “welcoming to travelers of diverse backgrounds.”