Trump-style candidate heads to runoff in Chile’s election

A grave in Copiapó, Chile, for those killed in 1973 under the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet, on Oct. 14, 2010. Polls show right-wing candidates drawing the most support, but a recent compulsory voting law could bring a surge of new voters, adding uncertainty. (Víctor Ruiz Caballero/The New York Times)

By EMMA BUBOLA and JOHN BARTLETT

José Antonio Kast, the main conservative contender in Chile’s presidential election and a candidate who has borrowed liberally from President Donald Trump’s playbook, secured second place in voting Sunday, advancing to a runoff that polls predict he will win.

If the polls prove correct, Chile will join a series of Latin American countries, including Argentina and Bolivia, that have shifted to the right in recent years.

With right-leaning candidates splitting the conservative vote, a Communist Party member, Jeannette Jara, came first in Sunday’s election, with about 27% of the vote, with more than 50% of votes counted.

Kast followed close behind, with 24%, according to Chile’s National Electoral Service. The other conservative candidates gathered about 45% of the vote, a share that political analysts say Kast is best positioned to inherit in the runoff next month.

“This is a first triumph,” Kast said Sunday. “Let’s keep going.”

Four years ago, Kast ended up losing the election to the progressive candidate, Gabriel Boric, who won the presidency in the runoff. This time, analysts said, growing concerns among voters on crime have fueled the right.

Chilean voters have become anxious over a surge in immigration and violence tied to transnational criminal networks. In what has long been one of Latin America’s safest countries, the presidential candidates have been striving to outdo one another in promising harsh crackdowns.

Kast has pitched a network of security cameras, ditches and walls through thousands of miles of sparsely populated desert to stop migrants entering Chile as part of a “border shield.”

At a recent Kast rally at a concert hall in Santiago, some of the attendees wore MAGA hats.

“The reason Kast exists is Trump,” said one of them, Maximiliano Sánchez, 24. “He started this movement, this ideology.”

Kast, the brother of a former minister during the military dictatorship of Gen. Augusto Pinochet, emerged in 2017 defending parts of Pinochet’s legacy and opposing abortion. But he recently set aside many of his most divisive proposals to focus on crime and illegal immigration.

“Our second round will be between a Communist candidate and one from the extreme right who four years ago seemed unreasonable, but now seems reasonable,” said Eduardo Engel, an economist who advised Boric before the runoff four years ago.

The runoff between two candidates standing at opposite ends of the political spectrum reflects a profoundly polarized Chile. Jara and Kast offer radically different visions for a country that has long been viewed as a success story for neoliberal economic policies, with widespread deregulation and privatization.

While Jara, 51, who was a minister in Boric’s government, wants to increase an “active” role for the state in the economy, much of the right is promoting the libertarian economic policies of Argentine President Javier Milei. He came into office pledging to attack inflation by slashing government spending and transforming the country’s economy.

Four years ago, Boric’s pitch of increasing the presence of the state in Chile’s market-based economic model resonated with voters after widespread social unrest. Protesters demanded improvements in living standards and radical change in a rich but deeply unequal country.

This time, the focus has shifted away from left-wing talking points.

“Social rights, diversities, cultural diversities, the relationship with Indigenous people, all of this disappeared,” said Patricio Fernández, a prominent Chilean journalist. “It is like we are in another world.”

Polls found that 63% of adults said violent crime was among their highest priorities.

“Chile did not use to be like this,” Gloria Romero, 67, a retiree from Santiago, said at the Kast rally in Santiago. “We are so unsafe, and we are scared.”

At the rally, Kast described what he said was a country in acute crisis, railed against criminals terrorizing the population and praised Chile’s security forces. Jara has also said she plans to strengthen law enforcement capabilities in an effort to combat crime.

Analysts said that compulsory voting, which Chile reintroduced in 2023, also contributed to the right’s political prospects.

“It is a huge change,” said Claudia Heiss, a Chilean political scientist. “It is an angry electorate.”

At a recent rally, Johannes Kaiser, a candidate who had positioned himself to the right of Kast, asked how many were attending their first political event, or were becoming involved with politics for the first time. A multitude of hands shot up.

Jara and her opponents to the right also have radically different views regarding the brutal military dictatorship that governed Chile from 1973 for nearly two decades, committing human rights abuses, and torturing and murdering people. Hundreds disappeared during that era.

While Jara has condemned the Pinochet dictatorship, some of her opponents have voiced a nostalgia for those times. Kast has distanced himself from the human rights abuses, but once said that he believed that if Pinochet were still alive, he would vote for him.

Outside his campaign’s headquarters, many supporters celebrated the results Sunday.

“The right brings order and security with it,” said Stephanie Gutiérrez, 29, who works in car sales.