US banks extend fall as investors assess executives’ sobering forecasts

U.S. bank stocks fell on Wednesday, extending declines after top executives warned of a slower-than-anticipated recovery in investment banking and an expected hit to interest income from looming rate cuts.

The commentary has sparked concerns about the industry, which has been under stress since last year. It also comes at a delicate time for the economy as a slowdown in the labor market spooks investors.

“Investors are trying to reconcile a few moving parts that are both bullish and bearish,” said David Wagner, portfolio manager and equity analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors.

“Rate cuts are expected to compress net interest income (NII)… but lower rates are also supposed to help boost spending. A tug of war has begun to see if growth can insulate the NII compression.”

Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo fell between 1.3% and 2%. Morgan Stanley dipped 0.5%, while JPMorgan Chase was largely flat.

The comments overshadowed concessions made by the Federal Reserve, which has said it will water down a highly contested plan to raise big banks’ capital.

Goldman Sachs shares turned positive and were last up marginally. In an interview with CNBC, the bank’s CEO, David Solomon, dismissed the notion that its planned early exit from a credit card partnership with General Motors was “messy”.

JPMorgan led the declines on Tuesday with a 5.2% fall after President and Chief Operating Officer Daniel Pinto said forecasts for the bank’s 2025 NII - the difference between what it earns on loans and pays out on deposits - were overly optimistic.

Rivals Wells Fargo and Citigroup had declined 1.2% and 2.7% respectively on Tuesday, while investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs each fell 1.6% and 4.4%.

Higher rates had boosted banks’ loan income, but easing monetary policy would lead to smaller-than-expected increases.

Morgan Stanley has also forecast modestly lower interest income for the third quarter, with President Dan Simkowitz noting that mergers, acquisitions and initial public offering activities will remain below trends for the rest of the year.

Pinto expects JPMorgan’s trading revenue to be flat or rise 2% in the quarter, while Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon anticipates a probable 10% dip due to sluggish conditions in August.

Citigroup’s CFO Mark Mason told investors at a conference in New York on Monday that markets revenue is likely to drop 4%.

The comments from executives of top U.S. banks overshadowed the Fed’s revised plan to raise big banks’ capital by 9%, down from 19%.

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe.

As a combative U.S. presidential debate grabs attention, upcoming U.S. inflation numbers have fallen into the background -- but perhaps only temporarily.

After all, the August consumer price inflation report released later on Wednesday is the last big data release before a much anticipated Sept. 18 Federal Reserve rate decision.

And given that markets still attach a roughly 35% chance to an aggressive 50 basis points cut next week (a 25 bps move is fully priced in), the latest numbers have the scope to move traders’ rate bets and therefore broader markets.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast a 0.2% month-on-month rise in both the headline and core consumer price index, with the headline annual measure expected to fall to 2.6% in August from 2.9% in July.

That would be the lowest annual inflation number since March 2021 and could cement expectations for a modest rate cut next week, which could support the dollar.

For Deutsche Bank economists, rental inflation is one to watch as there was a surprise rise in July, so the question is whether this was a one-off or not.

Ahead of the CPI release, markets appear to be taking their cue from Tuesday’s debate between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump - after which pop megastar Taylor Swift said she would vote for Harris.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower, while the dollar (and bitcoin) as well as U.S. stock futures are broadly softer, in what is seen as a signal from markets that the debate has given Harris an edge ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Following the debate, online betting site PredictIt showed Harris’ odds of winning improving 3 cents to 56 cents for a $1 payout, while Trump’s chances dropped 5 cents to 47 cents.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 3.605%, its lowest since June 2023, while the dollar was at 141.68 yen.