Banchero and Magic remain optimistic. Staying healthy is crucial.

Paolo Banchero has heard the chatter that the Orlando Magic play more smoothly and more effectively when he and Franz Wagner are on the court separately instead of together. (Facebook via Orlando Magic)

By JOSH ROBBINS / THE ATHLETIC

This was supposed to be the season when star forward Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic improved hand in hand.

That has not happened. At least not yet.

One-third of the way through their season, despite injuries to key players and one of the league’s most difficult schedules, the Magic remain solidly in the hunt to host a first-round playoff series. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that the team is 17-13, one victory behind its win total through 30 games last season, and Banchero has not yet made the sustained jump that he had wanted.

Outside the organization, the biggest question about the Magic’s short- and long-term viability on the court revolves around the pairing of Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero has heard the chatter that the Magic play more smoothly and more effectively when he and Wagner are on the court separately instead of together. When The Athletic asked him during the team’s just-completed four-game road trip about that perception, Banchero disputed it.

“People are going to say whatever they want to say about me, Franz and whoever,” he said. “But we know that we’re at our strongest when both of us are out there on the floor.”

The offensive games of the two stars are similar — perhaps too similar. Banchero and Wagner are at their best with the basketball in their hands, attacking the basket on mismatches or drawing so much defensive attention that they spray the ball out to the perimeter. Banchero and Wagner also have the same key weakness: their shooting. Banchero is a career 31.4% 3-point shooter, and Wagner, despite an uptick this season, is a career 32.5% 3-point shooter.

Banchero and Wagner have played a total of 286 minutes together this season, and when the Magic deploy that two-man lineup, they have outscored opponents by 4.0 points per 100 possessions. That’s good, but it’s not the overwhelming impact typically expected from two players locked in on maximum-salary deals. Banchero’s five-year, $241 million contract extension will begin with the 2026-27 season and would balloon to approximately $287 million over five years if he makes an All-NBA team this season. Wagner is in the first year of a five-year, $224 million contract.

The counterargument is that Banchero and Wagner are young, still-developing players who have not yet hit their primes. Banchero turned 23 in November, while Wagner turned 24 in August. With more experience and, crucially, better outside shooting that could come in time, Banchero and Wagner should have the opportunity to silence their doubters in a way similar to how the Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown eventually overcame the doubts about their pairing together.

At this exact moment, though, the Banchero-Wagner pairing is not an immediate concern. Wagner sustained a high-ankle sprain Dec. 7, and his return is not imminent.

In a vacuum, Banchero’s overall numbers appear strong, with averages of 20.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Measured against his three prior seasons, however, he has taken steps backward; his scoring average is the second-lowest of his career, and his 3-point shooting percentage has dipped to a career-low 23.7%.

The most obvious explanation for Banchero’s shooting downturn is a familiar one: an injury. Last season, injuries forced him to miss 36 games, with the most significant injury, a torn oblique muscle, sapping his conditioning and limiting his explosiveness for an extended stretch after he returned. This season, a groin strain kept him out for 10 games, and although he returned Dec. 5, he is still working back into a rhythm.

“It was definitely a setback,” Banchero said. “Nothing major, but definitely a minor setback. Just frustrating. But I was able to just focus on the rehab process and then get back on the court quick as possible. I knew coming back that, with it being a groin injury, it would take some time. But I’ve been feeling better, and I’m looking forward to just kind of taking off and really finding my feet and starting to play some really good basketball.”

Orlando has compiled a mediocre 10-10 record in the games Banchero has played but an impressive 7-3 record in the games he missed. Some valid reasons might explain the discrepancy, but on the surface, the team’s stronger performances without him contradict the notion that Banchero is the franchise’s most indispensable player.

Banchero, perhaps, is Orlando’s most talented offensive player. Wagner, meanwhile, is the team’s best two-way player. Newcomer Desmond Bane is the Magic’s most reliable shooter and a key late-game scorer. And guard Jalen Suggs is the team’s X-factor, someone who is so crucial with his energy and his point-of-attack defense that he makes everyone around him better.

The Magic’s preferred starting lineup of Suggs, Bane, Wagner, Banchero and center Wendell Carter Jr. has outscored opponents by 18.0 points per 100 possessions, making it one of the better quintets in the NBA. For comparison’s sake, consider that the Oklahoma City Thunder’s most commonly used lineup this season — the grouping of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — has outscored opponents by 18.3 points per 100 possessions. For Orlando, that’s good company to keep.

The success of the Magic’s primary lineup indicates that they have a legitimate chance at least to reach the second round in the East if they remain healthy. The problem is that the quintet has played only 117 minutes together because of the injuries to Banchero and Wagner and early-season caution with Suggs’ minutes after his knee-cartilage surgery in March.

The Magic struggled during their first five games of the season, when Banchero and Wagner both played heavy minutes but the team still went 1-4. Those issues primarily stemmed from the entire team adjusting to coaches’ heightened emphasis on pushing the pace and learning how to integrate Bane into the offense after his offseason trade.

Just when the team started to find its footing, Banchero injured his groin.

Wagner played like an All-Star during Banchero’s absence, Bane began to feel more comfortable with his role and his new teammates, and Suggs started to resemble his old self.

In the game that Banchero returned, the Magic improved to 14-9, and the team looked like it could catapult itself up the East standings.

But Wagner sprained his ankle during Banchero’s second game back. Suggs injured his hip six days later, during Orlando’s NBA Cup semifinal loss to the New York Knicks.

Banchero has remained strong attacking the rim and has been one of the sport’s most elite players at drawing shooting fouls. But he struggled with his 3-point shooting before his groin injury, shooting 25.0%, and he has struggled since his return as well, shooting 21.9% from 3.

Many of his midrange and long-range shots over the past three weeks have been short, a sign that he is still regaining the strength in his legs.

He expects an upturn.

He has reason for optimism. Last season, his oblique tear prevented him from jogging and running, and it took him weeks to regain that conditioning. But once he did, he played some of the best basketball of his professional career over his final 20 games of the regular season, averaging 29.7 points on 49.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from 3-point range. During the Magic’s first-round playoff series against the Boston Celtics, he averaged 29.4 points per game, shooting 43.5% from the field and 44.4% from 3.

He remains the focus of opposing defenses now, and when Wagner and Suggs return from their injuries, Tristan da Silva comes back from a shoulder contusion and Moe Wagner comes back from a year away because of an anterior cruciate ligament tear, Banchero could encounter less attention from opposing defenses.