The Yankees’ chances to maximize peak Aaron Judge is on the line

Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees runs the bases after hitting a home run in the first inning of the Opening Day baseball game between the Yankees and San Francisco Giants at Yankee Stadium in New York, March 30, 2023. “Judge turns 34 in April. He is not slowing down, save for a bum elbow that limits his throwing. But how many more chances will the Yankees get before he starts to decline?” columnist Ken Rosenthal asks. (Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times)

By KEN ROSENTHAL / THE ATHLETIC

As reporters entered the New York Yankees’ clubhouse, the only audible sound was of the showers running. The Yankees could not get the stench off soon enough.

The division series was not over on Sunday, but the Yankees were one loss away from another season of failing to win a title with Aaron Judge at the peak of his powers. Judge turns 34 in April. He is not slowing down, save for a bum elbow that limits his throwing. But how many more chances will the Yankees get before he starts to decline?

The question is not yet pressing, even though the Toronto Blue Jays scored 22 of the first 23 runs in the opening two games of this series, leaving the Yankees to “rally” from a 12-0 deficit Sunday in a 13-7 defeat. But even if the Yankees were to win the next two games in New York, starting with Game 3 on Tuesday night, Game 5 would be back at Rogers Centre in Toronto, where they are 1-8 against the Blue Jays this season.

The past two games were nothing like the four-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays from June 30 to July 3, when the Yankees embarrassed themselves with their sloppy play. Fans cannot pin this on manager Aaron Boone, nor should the Yankees’ front office. The Jays, riding the split-fingered fastballs of veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman and rookie Trey Yesavage and an offense that seemingly could do no wrong, were simply the better team.

“The biggest takeaway for me is that our level of execution needs to be better,” injured Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole said. “But their level of execution is objectively hard to deal with at this point. They’re just raking right now.”

In the aftermath, the Yankees were left with little choice but to resort to the usual back-against-the-wall, one-game-at-a-time cliches. Judge recalled his rookie season in 2017, when the Yankees rallied from two games down to beat Cleveland in the American League Division Series. They overcame the same deficit against Oakland in 2001.

“There’s been a lot of weird things that have happened in baseball this year,” Boone said. “This would not be the weirdest, us rallying.”

Boone is right. A win by Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón over Blue Jays righty Shane Bieber in Game 3 would put the Jays in a difficult spot, trying to close out a Game 4 with a bullpen game against red-hot Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler. Gausman would return for a potential Game 5 in Toronto against Yankees lefty Max Fried, who has a 9.42 ERA in three starts at Rogers this season after pitching three innings Sunday and getting rocked for seven runs. At this point, the Yankees would welcome that winner-take-all problem.

The Yankees trailed the Jays by five games in the AL East on Sept. 16, then won 11 of their final 12 to finish with the same record, only to lose the division in a tiebreaker. They then prevailed in two elimination games against the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card series. So again, the challenge they face is not insurmountable. But for a franchise that measures success only by World Series titles, the thought of another disappointing exit is troubling.

The Yankees’ competitive window, mind you, never closes. And while outfielders Trent Grisham (34 homers) and Cody Bellinger (29) are among the team’s potential free agents, they will either be re-signed or replaced. By the end of next season, the rotation could include Rodón, Schlittler, Gil and Fried, plus Cole and Clarke Schmidt coming off Tommy John surgeries. That is a heck of a starting point.

Then again, Cole will be 35 next season — like Judge, not getting any younger.

“I’m not concerned,” Cole said. “The track record of putting a team out there that has the potential to make the playoffs every year, go deep into the playoffs and win the World Series is rather great. You mentioned some of the aging players. We have a lot of good young players, too. And obviously, we can acquire any type of player whenever we want through all three markets. So, no, I’m not concerned.”

Fair enough. The Yankees, with 27 consecutive winning seasons under general manager Brian Cashman, always seem to figure out a path to contention. But much of their recent success is attributable to Judge. And while Judge is 8 for 18 this postseason with two walks, his only extra-base hit is a double. And in his biggest at-bat — bases loaded, none out, with the Yankees trailing 2-0 in the sixth inning of Game 1 in this series — Gausman struck him out.

Think about it: Judge might win his third MVP award in four years, but Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. arguably has produced more electrifying postseason moments in two days, with a first-inning homer in Game 1 and a grand slam in Game 2, than Judge has in his entire career.

Again, the series is not over. One can even argue that the Jays needed to win the first two games, given that the pitching matchups in the next two seem to favor the Yankees. But the Yankees also appeared to hold an edge with Fried, a $218 million free agent, facing Yesavage, who was making his fourth major league start. Eleven strikeouts in 5 1/3 hitless innings later, we saw how that turned out.

Losing to a hot team in the playoffs would not necessarily be cause for finger-pointing and self-loathing. Losing the way the Yankees did in last year’s World Series, stumbling all over themselves against the Los Angeles Dodgers, was worse. But in the end, the essential result would be the same.

Another year of missed opportunity. Another season lost with the clock ticking on Aaron Judge.